Monday, May 19, 2008

For Obama and Clinton, Oregon Holds All the Cards


Ok, so if this were Vegas, the smart money would be on Sen. Barack Obama getting the nomination. In fact, even the most loyal of Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters knows deep down it's gonna take nothing short of a miracle for her coronation to occur this August at the Democratic Convention in Denver. While there's still more primaries to go, and the race is indeed not technically over, it's pretty safe to say it's, well, over. That is of course unless something very interesting happens tomorrow in Oregon.

To be sure, Obama's facing tough challenges ahead if he cannot obatin the support of the white working class, Hillary's bread and butter. That said, if Obama becomes the party's nominee, he is certain to bring in millions of new voters this November. Inspired by his message of hope and change, young people and blacks have been turning out in record numbers to vote for him, and this support could possibly not only offset losses from poor and middle class whites, but could also help Illinois' junior Senator in redrawing the electoral map in key regions of the United States, particularly the South.

Despite her big win in West Virginia last week, Clinton is still viewed by most as having run out of steam. Though she continues to vow to fight till the end, that end could be very near. And Oregon holds all the cards. Oregon, which holds its primary Tuesday along with Kentucky, is split east and west among rural and urban voters respectively, but has been widely viewed as Obama-country for some time now. Like Washington, Minnesota, Iowa and others, it has many of the wealthier, more educated white "Starbucks" crowd that has been a cornerstone of Obama's success this year. As late as last week he led Clinton by 20 points, but new polls out today like Suffolk show that lead has dwindled to 4%. The RealClearPolitics' average has him up by 10% still, but that indicator is not updated.

But the "Starbucks" crowd came aboard Obama's campaign early in the primary season, before the Rev. Wright implosion, before BitterGate, and before other controversies involving Obama and his wife (flag pin, pride, etc). Is Obama's hold on this group still as strong here in the middle of May? What if he loses Oregon tomorrow, or wins only by the barest of margins? What if the results show that Hillary gained on the Starbucks crowd, while Obama's support appreciably eroded? Would this enhance Hillary's narrative to the super-delegates? Would a measurable loss of support from one of his bread and butter constituencies--combined with his huge lack of support among the white working class--be just the watershed moment the super D's are looking for to convince them that she's successfully made her case that she's the more electable candidate against the GOP's Sen. John McCain? That Obama is the one who has truly run out of steam? That, even with his tremendous field operation, he could not win this state when he was previously up by 20 points? In this crazy election year, anything can happen. Oregon is expecting a record 65% turnout tomorrow. That makes things even more unpredictable. On the one hand, it's a safe bet that the youth vote will be a large part of that turnout. But, will Hillary's supporters be coming out in droves as well?

Now the flip side to all this is if, as predicted, Obama wins the state handily. If that happens, and he demonstrates that his core support has not diminished, then her narrative will not change from yesterday, and for all intents and purposes, the race is indeed over...as it certainly appears to be right now. Judging from how she has turned graceful in her campaigning these past couple of weeks, if she suffers a decisive blow in Oregon tomorrow, she'll likely just continue to quietly fade from the picture, or, perhaps finally quit her exhausting fight and go home to Chappaqua.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Did you happen to see this latest video from Portland TV?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU_8HiwZOEo&eurl=http://noquarterusa.net/blog/

Anonymous said...

I am an independent voting for McCain.

I can't vote for Obama b/c he supports Hamas, was a practicing muslim, and he and his wife (and their friends and pastor) don't particularly like America. To be honest, I can understand why blacks would hate America. I sympathize. But I cannot allow an america-hater to be President.

I can't vote for Clinton b/c she's incompetent. She failed to get Health Care reform passed even though the democrats controlled every single branch of government. She and her husband lie with impunity. She's power hungry. She voted for the war. She lied about Bosnia sniper fire and she overstates her "experience". She's run a real-shitty campaign. I don't believe her and Bill are racists in their hearts, but they've had no problem pretending to be racists during this primary campaign.

McCain meanwhile loves his country, sacrificed his life for his country, and has a history of working across the political divide to broker meaningful reforms. Plus, he'll protect us from Iran and Syria. Obama the muslim will just let the islamic fundamentalists win and Clinton the communist/lesbian/Vince Foster murderer isn't any better.

The choice is simple America....

Anonymous said...

LOL, 3:35, good parody.

Good analysis, Ostroy. If Hillary wins Oregon, I think things may get really, really ugly. On the one hand, she'll be able to make a legit case that the supers should go with her. On the other hand, a super landslide in her favor may be seen as a bit of a backroom deal overturning the will of the larger electorate. In a sense that's what they were designed for, of course, but we've never had a contest like this one, where identity politics have come so much into play.

At this point I think I'm rooting for Obama to close it out at least in part because I live in Denver, and I wouldn't want the city destroyed over some nasty last-minute fight whose "core" representatives seem to have split along race and class lines.

Anonymous said...

I have a relatives that live in Corvallis OR. According to them, nearly all of their neighbors have turned against Obama after the series of gaffs and controversies. These people are those college educated elitists, the MS and PhD crowd, that Obama loves to claim.

If you look carefully at a geo-political map of Oregon, his supporters are mainly targeted as those along the coastal region and Portland. The rest of Oregon leans more Clinton or GOP.

My relatives have always been for Hillary Clinton. As one put it,"You don't have to be a rocket scientist, you just have to have an open mind and do the homework." In other words, Hillary is the best choice.

We'll see.

Anonymous said...

Hillary is the absolute worst choice (other than Imam Hussein Obama). Hillary is a communist-sympathizing lesbian who will turn the nanny state into the Hitler state. She lies with great ease see: Bosnia Sniper story and her claim to have a lot of "experience". The only real experience she had was in the Health Care reform effort, in which she FAILED MISERABLY despite Democratic control of Congress. She's pathetic and can't even run a good campaign. She's too close to Chinese billionaires...

If she can't control bill from banging interns, hairdressers, and paula jones, etc... then how can she run a country?

She probably also had Vince Foster murdered too...

Anonymous said...

Tery McCauliffe was exuberant when talking to Wolfe Blitzer today about Hillary's chances of winning. He said that she's staying in until the end and that she is going to have the majority of the popular vote, as well as pointing out the misrepresentation the caucus votes produce. He wasn't faking it -- in his opinion she has won.Her lead in popular votes will be huge and that will win her the nomination, he said.

Anonymous said...

5"06 I found your comments so silly I was going to sign off but the devil made me answer: Hillary who according to you has accomplished so much evil including murder, to be so popular and even revered and loved by many and to be a strong choice for the presidency must be only a hair's breadth away from being Super Woman. I have never known such an low-down "criminal" to succeed so mightily among huge numbers of ordinary, decent people. You gotta hand it to her.

Of course if your evaulation of her is tinged by your belief that she's a communist lesbian and if that turns you off so be it. Maybe if you got shoe lifts you woudln't feel so threatened.

Anonymous said...

5:27,

When is Terry McAuliffe NOT exuberant?

Anonymous said...

Hillary Clinton is a nice lady. Her service to this country is admirable (7 years in the Senate, which includes voting for the Iraq War and the credit-card industry's Bankruptcy Reform Bill...failed health care reform effort, and...and...and...I guess she helped with S-CHIP, but i think that was actually more Kennedy than the first lady)

She's not going to win though. The only way she could win is by convincing superdelegates. How has she done on that score? Not well...Barring a dead body in Obama's closet, she cannot win. It's over. She needs to start explaining to her supporters that the end is nigh and they must support Obama and not the anti-abortion, pro-tax cuts for the rich, pro-war McCain....

You're a good public servant, Senator Clinton. Time to turn off the lights, though. Maybe you'll have another shot. But hell, you already had your shot. If you were a virtual co-president, which is what you and your supporters suggest often enough, then you've already had your chance to rule this nation. No more dynasties!!! The second round is never successful (J.Q. Adams and the Era of "Good Feelings" and, well, GWB was horrible while Bush I was, in retrospect, tolerable.)

Anonymous said...

Please stop calling us Oregonians starbucks liberals. The last time I checked Oregon had the third highest unemployment rate in the country. Most of us are working two and three jobs to pay the outrageous costs of housing, gas and food. Don't even mention the sorry state of health care in the state. I have lived here all my life and we are just like everyone else. This lable of "starbucks liberals" sounds like the Hillary camp's way of dismissing a big win by Obama.

Anonymous said...

Fascinating news:

Patty Solis Doyle, Hillary Clinton's former campaign manager and personal confidante, has had informal discussions about going to work for the Obama campaign in the general election.

The healing is beginning!

Anonymous said...

Yes, Michael, the healing is beginning. While all the opporunists slip into Obama's camp hoping he wins and they'll get a crumb, I am starting my own healing as are my friends and familyjust in case Obama gets to be the nominee. We've started watching Fox News. and learning that part of McCain's campaign plan is to come more to the middle to attract us disillusioned Democrats. He knows that there will be a huge number of Democrats who simply cannot vote for Obama because of his baggage, If Hillary is not the nominee, McCain, God love him, is going to help us by appealing to us with some of our interests being met. Heard it tonight!!!!! We'll wait until later for Hillary to be President of the United States.

Anonymous said...

7:14 Thank you so much for reminding us what could be considered some of Hilary's not so memorable achievements. I remember now how they pale when compared the possibilities of failures should Obama become president. The fact alone that he sat in a church for twenty years and doesn't know what was preached is a very dangerous signal of his ability. But enough of that.

Thank you too for reminding all of us of the wonderful years of prosperity and peace we had when she and Bill were president. I long for those days again. I'd be happy we could only get their economy back. What a difference that would make.

Anonymous said...

10:20,

Discount Patty Solis Doyle if you like (sexist?) but here's a bit more anecdotal evidence:

I conducted an experiment this evening. I placed a call to the entire roster of caucus-goers from my precinct who supported Hillary Clinton and asked them point blank the following question:

If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President will you vote for Obama or John McCain?

I dailed 52 numbers (I live in a small precinct dominated by Republicans) and reached 21 willing to answer. Remember these are my neighbors so we're friendly. Of those 21, 18 said they will vote for Obama and 3 were undecided. Of the three undecideds only one was considering voting for McCain while the other two were considering sitting out the election.

What prompted me to make the calls was that we went to an after school cast party for my son's play. My son's private school is heavily populated by Republicans and we're one of only two families at the whole school OPENLY supporting Obama.

Anyway, two mothers of other boys in the play came up to us at the party and told us that they were Hillary supporters but wanted to know what they can now do for Obama - they cannot stand the idea of McCain in the White House.

You may not want it to happen and may be openly working against it, but the fact is there's plenty of evidence to support the notion that the healing is beginning to occur.

Anonymous said...

Indeed, the healing should begin. Again, I posit to all the Obama-hating Hillaryphiles out there:

Why in the SAM HILL would you ever vote for McCain? You're going to throw the whole country into the shit for AT LEAST four years, just so that in another round of primaries Hillary MIGHT get the chance to be the nominee? What if she lost to Barack (or someone else) then? What if she lost the general?

If you're seriously willing to vote for McCain because Hillary didn't get the nomination, then you are suicidal/delusional/childish. As angry as I'd be if the nom were given to Hillary despite the all but insurmountable math going against her at this point, I would still vote for her over McCain. What in the hell is wrong with you people?

Anonymous said...

fiecepika,your constant slaming of the former first-lady may have alot to do with Hillary's people not voting for Obama and thinking of voting Mccain.I cautioned Obama fans many times about slaming the clintons the way they were doing it.When to cover up the Rev.Wright problem you made bill clinton a racist,and then called hillary's supporters stupid-dumb-white under-educated morons because they couldn't drink the obama tea and like it.You may have just and I do say may have.Burned the bridges you are going to need to have Obama in the white house.And you should talk to the clinton people and exsplain why the shouldn't vote for mccain,but vote for Obama.But no,it's easier to call them suicidal/deluusional/childish.I'm really sure that will bring them around to voting for OBAMA,Thats why Mccain will win in the fall,you people really don't know how to talk to the working class of this country.Before the great sidney can jump in and say you have hard working blacks that are voting for Obama,you have and we all know why

Anonymous said...

8:09,

"Before the great sidney can jump in and say you have hard working blacks that are voting for Obama,you have and we all know why."

Pot... meet kettle.

Even IF you had a legitimate gripe, anon, you render it moot by engaging in the very activity/language you complain about coming from the other side.

BTW, you might want to check your timeline. The complaints regarding Bill Clinton's remarks about South Carolina pre-date the explosion of the Reverend Wright story by two months.

Anonymous said...

8:09 is finally a voice or reason, civility and intelligence posting here among this gang of thugs who support Obama. They're giving "elitist" a very bad name with their crude and hateful remarks. They give a very bad impression of the kind of people supporting Obama. Again, 8:09 is absolutely right.

I would also add that it's not just the fervent support for Hillary fostered by the belief she would be the best president and she is the one who can beat McCain, it's also the sexism and racism fostered by the Obama group as well as, and it's been said many times, his association with the Black Theology Movement. Many do not trust him because of that issue. McCain seems safer by comparison.

Anonymous said...

What ruined Obama for me was when I found out they were selling Tee shirts that say "The Bro before the Ho."

That's sexism and racism in one shot. And there are actually people buying them and wearing them.

Sidney Condorcet said...

9:22am, your rationale would make sense if Obama's campaign (or a group related to the campaign) was manufacturing those t-shirts. That would be deplorable.

Obama cannot be held responsible for every person looking to make a buck off of this election. Same goes for those loathesome Hillary Nutcracker statues. They are disgusting and mysogonist, but they are not Obama's fault. If you don't support Obama b/c of an actual issue or you dont think he'd be a good president, that's fine. But I'm tired of hearing of how his campaign has been anti-woman. Maybe the media is anti-women, but the Obama campaign has not been.

It's sooo sad what this is coming too. Unfortunately, I think Obama has no choice now but to choose Hillary as his VP. That is the only way to ensure that her supporters stay within the fold. Sure, having Bill roaming around the Naval Observatory with nothing to do may cause some headaches for the Obama administration, but I think Obama and Clinton would be a good team, assuming Obama gives her some real power and that she can, when the time comes, check her ego and follow the President's wishes. I think having her run a successful push on health care reform would satisfy her.

Obama-Clinton 2008: The Change we can sort of believe in....

Anonymous said...

michael is sidney,sidney is micheal

Sidney Condorcet said...

anon9:52 is every anonymous poster on this blog. In fact, I believe there is only one anonymous, pro-Hillary supporter...Wow, anon 9:52, being nonsensical is kind of fun...

Anonymous said...

RE: the "bros before hos" t-shirt.

It is NOT put out by the Obama campaign, just as the multitude of sexist t-shirts made by supporters of John McCain and the GOP are not sanctioned by the McCain campaign.

These shirts are made by people trying to make a buck. You folks are beating a dead horse.

Anonymous said...

I am really tired of double standards. It's OK to damn the Swiftboaters and blame the Republican Party but God forbid Obama should come underfire for his "swiftboater-type" Tee-shirt smear.

And those who want to Make a Buck are evidently doing so by the huge number of racsts/sexists buying the shirts.

Anonymous said...

This Hillary supporter will NOT STAY IN THE FOLD> I will not cast a vote for Obama even if Hillary is the v.p. Why would he be a better president if Hillary is his vp? That makes no sense. He is what he is and thinks how he thinks with or without Hillary and I don't want his "mind-set" as president.

Anonymous said...

Micahel - the anon didn't say wright came before SC. They are two different issues.

I'm glad you stopped using rhe racist saying" "The pot calling the kettle black." You have grown in your heart. Congratulations. Now if you "only had a brain."

Anonymous said...

10:12am,

I don't want your "mind-set" as a citizen. Please move to another country as your dragging down our nation's collective I.Q.

Anonymous said...

10:16,

Perhaps your logic skills need a refresher:

Anon said that the Obama folks made Bill Clinton out to be a racist to cover up the Reverend Wright issue. Logically speaking, in order to do so the Wright issue would have had to preceed Clinton's comments about South Carolina (the source of the "racist" commentary). It did not.

BTW, "pot calling the kettle black" is not racist. Do some homework before you write so as not to show your ignorance.

Anonymous said...

Micheael One blogger on a former post -- maybe another Ostroy report - said that Clinton was called a racist in SC and blacks then flocked to Obama and they saw he could win so they dumped Hillary. The blogger you're referring to didn't mention SC but said they made Bill a racist to cover wright. Both accounts are true. You are the mentally deficient and blur accounts you read.

If it's not racist why did you modify it when used in your posts? "Pot - meet kettle" has no meaning at all.

Sidney Condorcet said...

12:05pm is quite honestly the most retarded person in this nation. Seriously...I think Ostroy should organize a telethon in 12:05's honor.

Pot meet Kettle has not meaning? Well, since we're all (save you) intelligent beings here, we don't have to always finish well-known sayings in order to get our truth across. For instance, if I were to say in an argument "We all know that you can lead a horse to water" w/o finishing it, I would expect fellow readers of this site to understand what i was aiming at. Obviously, your mental limitations prevent you from "getting it".

Anonymous said...

Sidney -- You forgot you made the pot/kettle post under your name "Michael" But no matter.

Get your mother to show you how to go to Google and type in the phrase and all the discussions and controversy abaout whehter or not it's racist.

But, here in the south where I live, it is a racist remark and never made in the company of a black person. It would be rude to do so.

I guess there in TX where Michael lives there are no such concerns.

Anonymous said...

First, that "Bros before Hos" tee was out before the campaign even started. I remember seeing it as early as December or January. They have nothing to do with Obama. Contact T-shit hell, and they'll tell you. You notice they also have a pro-Hillary tee that says, "Tits and Ass 2008" with a picture of a Dem donkey for the ass, and they also have a tee with a picture of both Obama and Clinton which says, "The choice is clear: vote Republican". This is what we call "capitalism in a free society." Good grief.

8:09 & Co.: Where here have I "slammed" Clinton? I have slammed her supporters like you who would idiotically vote for McCain over Obama. Now, you are by no means idiots for supporting Hillary, or for disliking Obama. You WOULD DEFINITELY BE IDIOTS for voting for McCain, if indeed you are legit Hillary supporters. I think Clinton would make a fine prez, but I like Obama slightly better. Remember, my first choice was Edwards (although none of them are ideal). Is it really burning bridges to tell you that you'd be stupid to vote for McCain? Perhaps, but if that's the case it's a bridge you already crossed that Hillary herself never will. I guarantee you she'll be voting for Barack if he's the nominee, because she actually wants this country to be better, even if she thinks she's the better person to do it. You do/take what you can.

I think some within the Obama camp, and certainly many Obama supporters, have taken advantage of sexism and racism. However, this is just as true of the the Clinton side. It's sad it's come to this, but they're both fighting hard, and occasionally dirty. If you think this has been a one-way process, your biases have completely overcome your critical faculties.

Anonymous said...

12:20,

Once again, my name is Michael and I live in Texas. I am not Sidney, though I do happen to agree with Sidney most of the time.

Now, I'm starting to wonder if you are deliberately incoherent or simply ignorant. My response about timing was specifically directed at a false charge made in this thread of commentary. The fact of the matter is that charges of Bill Clinton uttering racist commentary after the South Carolina primary PRE-DATES the Reverend Wright scandal, rendering the comments of the anon here at the Ostroy Report inaccurate.

Where do you live in the South? I ask so I can research whether that ancient phrase, which pre-dates slavery in the United States, is actually considered a racist remark where you live.

Either you are a liar or your region of my beloved South is horribly ignorant.

Sidney Condorcet said...

I live in New York. How's everything going in the Land of the Big Sky, Michael?

I find it amusing that some anonymous commenters think you, Bkln, and I are the same person. There cannot possibly be more than one Obama supporter frequenting this blog, right? Sheesh...It's frightening how moronic certain people can be...

Here's a good way to tell us apart. I typically don't act cordial toward some of the loony anons. I'll occasionally get rude and curse and call you names. That's the clearest way to tell it's me and not Michael, save for the easiest way, which is to take note of the screen name.

Anonymous said...

Sidney

It's hotter than the hinges of hell today in Military City, USA. (That's another little Southern bon mot, possibly devilish but in no way racist.)

Had fun with the Cornyn office today. Called them to give them what for about the GI Bill and, for once, the staffer had a ready-made reply. Of course she mentioned the bill Cornyn and McCain have sponsored but when I quizzed her about the differences in the bills, she had no idea what she was talking about.

After registering her frustration with a pronounced *sigh*, she promised to address my concerns with my (dipshit) Senator. HA!

Tell your friends and other activists to look into supporting Rick Noriega (http://www.ricknoriega.com/) in his campaign against that sorry-ass Bush lap-dog, John Cornyn. We could sure use some help in closing this deal. According to some recent polls, we're within 4 points of defeating a sitting US Senator (which happens about as rarely as anons and logic coming together at the Ostroy Report).

Anonymous said...

Micheal, Sidney I am one regular reader of Ostroy's blog who has no interest whatsoever in telling you apart, or, for that matter, knowing anything about you, including your opinions. Just as I skim over the Republican moles, I skim over your entries. The reason I'm taking my time telling you this is that after seeing your names so often and knowing the arrogance those names represent, it "got to me" on this rainy, dark day where I live.


Don't waste your time responding and cursing and doing what you do. I will not read it.

Sidney Condorcet said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sidney Condorcet said...

2:31pm, you are a regular reader who does not contribute anything of value to this blog. I don't care if you read my posts.

Michael,

Keep up the great work in Texas. I had been unaware that Noriega was giving Cornyn the fight of his life. It's a real testament to how weak the Republican brand is these days, and why it's a mistake to automatically assume that either Obama or Hillary would without a doubt lose this year. Sometimes forces greater than the individual candidates are what decide electoral outcomes.

As for the GI Bill, I believe it's a front for Obama to exploit against McCain aggressively. McCain wants the incentives weighted toward re-enlistment. He doesn't understand that we should reward service more fully if we are truly to "support the troops".

By the way, you know your succeeding on a blog when people who never post chime in that they never read your entry. It's a sign that they do indeed read them and that your commentary is at least challenging the positions they hold. Some on this blog would prefer that we all agree that Hillary will be the nominee despite the near certainty that she won't, that we agree that all blacks are racist and that not a single white person is racist, that we all agree that Obama is sexist, that Hillary has not exploited her gender at all, that no one in the Clinton campaign has resorted to race-based arguments, and so on...

Apparently people on this blog, such as 2:31pm, only go online to have their feelings validated. When they confront someone they disagree with, they get out of sorts...

Anonymous said...

2:31,

Let's see. You skim over the entries of Republican moles and Obama supporters. So you are only interested in the words of those with whom you agree?

How enlightened.

Anonymous said...

Sidney,

Thanks for the kind words and support, especially about Noriega. By no means will electing him be easy. But as a long-suffering Dem in Texas this is probably the best shot we've had since Lloyd Bentsen retired of sending one of our own to the Senate and I'm relishing the opportunity.

Let me know what my friends and I can do for someone in need from your neck of the woods. We'll do what we can.

Sidney Condorcet said...

Appreciate it...We may need help in the 3rd congressional district (Bush lapdog, Peter King) and in disgraced Congressman Vito Fossella's Staten Island seat which is now in play. We won't know until after party conventions in June who the Dem candidates will be for certain. I'll keep you posted....

Anonymous said...

Dear God -- this is not a dating service. Don't you two have telephones? Or email accounts?

Anonymous said...

Umm, last time I checked this blog was dedicated Ostroy's self-declared "mission...to help Democrats regain the White House and Congress." If you don't care about the Democrats picking up the Texas Senate seat or two NY House sets from the Repugs, then you are nothing more than a Repuglican troll, 5:21pm.

All of the real Dems on this blog do not have a problem with blog posts trying to rally the troops to a particular race...so go funk yourself, Repubtard...

Anonymous said...

"Now the flip side to all this is if, as predicted, Obama wins (Oregon) handily. If that happens, and he demonstrates that his core support has not diminished, then her narrative will not change from yesterday, and for all intents and purposes, the race is indeed over..."

Obama looks as though he will capture Oregon by 16 percentage points. Exit polls show he ran even with Clinton among women and people who earn less than $50K a year.

Are you willing to call the race over, Andy?