Thursday, January 31, 2008

Why It'll Be McCain v. Clinton Come Tuesday Night

On Tuesday, voters in 22 states will go to the polls in what has become Super-Duper historic day of key Democratic and Republican primaries and caucuses. By the time the polls close, I suspect the candidates left standing will be Arizona Sen. John McCain and NY Sen. Hillary Clinton. This will be largely due to several key social factors and political realities.

To begin with, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads in about 10 states and, overall, sizeabale leads in many of the most delegate-rich states. Additionally, she has the overwhelming support of whites and latinos; the latino vote being perhaps the most critical asset for her and the biggest liability for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, her only rival at this point (following former Senator John Edwards' suspension this week of his campaign). And while Obama picked up South Carolina's delegates last week, he was carried over the finish line by the state's large constituency of black voters. But Hillary, by a 2-to-1 margin, won the state's latinos. As the campaign now spreads out broadly across the U.S., the absence of this huge South Carolina-like black support will be pronounced, especially given Clinton's clear majority of whites and hispanics. She also is the favorite among the poor and middle class, and those less educated...and there's a whole lot more of them than the wealthier, educated Whites who, along with blacks, comprise Obama's key supporters. The Obama camp also touts large support among the nation's youth, but, unless this year is different (which it very well may be), history shows that young people just don't show up at the polls on election day.

What could slam the door shut on the hispanic vote would be for someone like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson--historically a loyal Clintonite--to come out with a Hillary endorsement sometime tomorrow or over the weekend. I believe this is very likely. In exchange, and given his credentials, he sure would make for a helluva Secretary of State.

Lastly, and this should come as a shock to no one, America is still quite a racist nation. This is the biggest hurdle of all for Obama. Are voters ready for a black president? As a mostly liberal Democrat, nothing in my lifetime would make me happier than to see a black man or woman become president. And if that's 2008, I would be ecstatic. But I'm also a realist. I just don't think most voters, come lever-time, will vote for Obama. All we need to do, if we're looking for a reminder of the scale of our nation's ignorance and prejudice, is to go back to '04, when hatred of gays drove many to overlook their own best interests and be usued instead as political pawns by Karl Rove.

So, stack all this up and it appears very unlikely that Obama will emerge victorious on Super Duper Tuesday. It is more likely that on Wednesday, February 6th, Obama will officially leave the race.

Now for the Republican landscape. McCain is clearly the choice among conservatives. Despite what former Massachusettes Gov. Mitt Romney keeps saying, McCain's overall message is clearly resonating quite well among those right-wingers that the Stormin' Mormon covets. McCain keeps winning primaries for a reason. He's appealing to a coalition of independents, conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans...the latter of whom obviously represents the majority of GOP voters these days. Come Tuesday, I think McCain will largely win most of the states, with a few smaller ones perhaps going for Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will likely win a couple of Southern states--Georgia and Tennessee perhaps--where a minority of ultra right wing evangelical types cling to the delusional notion that a majority of Republicans still care most about whether gays marry or if women get abortions. And it is precisely for this gross miscalculation that McCain has so far blown past his rivals....demonstrating that it is he, not they, who is more in touch with today's conservative. The Huckabee-worshipping fanatics no longer represent the party nor wield the kind of clout that Rove masterfully preyed upon in 2000 and 2004.

And now with the endorsements of former NYC Mayor (and once-GOP frontrunner) Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, McCain's momentum seems unstoppable. Throw in a possible veep choice of Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the independent Democrat who is more conservative than the average Republican, and McCain could very well sail all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania next November.

On another note, we could use your help at The The Adrienne Shelly Foundation. We are a tax-exempt, non-profit organization dedicated in my wife's honor to help carry out her spirit and passion, with the goal of assisting women filmmakers. Adrienne was brutally killed in NYC on November 1, 2006. Through the Foundation, her commitment to filmmaking lives on. We've established scholarships, grants, finishing funds and living stipends at NYU's Tisch School of the Arts/Kanbar Institute of Film; Columbia University; American Film Institute; Women in Film; the Independent Feature Project; the Nantucket Film Festival; and the Sundance Institute. Your generous contribution will go a long way towards helping us achieve this very important mission. Thank you.


Anonymous said...

Andy, I realize you are saying what you think will be the outcome and not what you necessarily want------but my goodness, do you really think what is going on here is what is actually happening? You dont think anything is rigged or controlled? My god, look at last nights debate----Ron Paul and Huckabee were TOTALLY ignored and censored----you dont think that is media control? I even heard someone is filing a lawsuit against 4 large media networks and 4 newspapers on rackateering charges for media censorship. Tell me something Andy----whenever Obama and Clinton say "all the Republicans want to continue Bush's war policy" (they both said it TONIGHT)----why does NO ONE ever say "except Ron Paul"??? Why??? You know why??? Because even THEY want to prolong this war!! Thats why! Do you really think this war will end even if a Democrat is in office? If you think that--youre on acid. The Democrats stand up there and LIE and say they will end the war----ok---so why do they lump Ron Paul in with the rest of the Republicans when is he is biggest ANTI-WAR candidate running?? Better question Andy: Why dont YOU ever say anything in support of Ron Paul??? tell me ONE thing he's wrong about! Just ONE!! This election is FIXED like they ALL are. There is NO fucking way Ron paul gets the highest military donations, raises all this money, wins most of the straw polls, wins all the debates when they do online or text message polls and he scores as low as he does in some states---no fucking way! Im not being bitter--Im just saying, the facts are inconsistent. Look at everyone in the media---controlled, establishment elitists. Anderson Cooper is a CIA trainee----Katie Couric and Tom Brokaw are both on the Council of Foreign Relations. The Clintons are members of the Bohemian Grove---my god Andy, wake up! These people are all involved in the global elite plan to make the world into a one world government. In other words----they HATE America and the Constitution---this is why Ron Paul is silenced!

Anonymous said...

Grim outlook andy, hope you are wrong. I don't think Lieberman is a possible choice for veep as from the perspective of the right he is pro-abortion, pro-environment and so on. I think the huckster would do more for McCain. I also think you are underestimating the degree to which folks are tired or the whole conservative mantra on taxes, health care, war and such.

Anonymous said...

"We just have to slow down our economy and cut back our greenhouse gas emissions 'cause we have to save the planet for our grandchildren." - Bill Clinton January 31, 2008

The Clintons and Democrats want to destroy the economy in the name of Al Gore's Global Warming Scam.

McCain vs Clinton? America is Doomed.

Sidney Condorcet said...

Mssr. Ostroy,

While it is still probable that Clinton will win the nomination, it is foolish to think that she will have it sewn up by Tuesday. The delegate count will remain close enough to keep Obama in the race at least until Ohio and Texas vote in March, or even until Pennsylvania's primary in early April.

The latest Rasmussen poll released this week has Obama within the margin of error in CALIFORNIA!! He looks very good in the Bay Area w/ a lot of progressives, upper income, better educated people. Not to mention the african american vote in and around Oakland. He's not likely to win outright, but he'll pick up 35-40% of California delegates to keep on the game going.

Plus, he'll win Illinois, Connecticut, Georgia, Colorado, Kansas, Idaho, possibly Arizona, possibly Minnesota (with their anti-establishment tendencies). He may very well win Massachusetts (as he has the endorsement of Kennedy and Gov. Deval Patrick, who is cut from the same mold as Obama). He'll also do will in NYC and upper Jersey, to keep the delegate counts closer than expected in those states as well.

Don't drink the tainted Kool-Aid, Ostroy. This is going to remain awfully interesting for some time.

Sidney Condorcet said...

"The Obama camp also touts large support among the nation's youth, but, unless this year is different (which it very well may be), history shows that young people just don't show up at the polls on election day."

History also shows that latinos do not show up to the polls in overwhelming numbers as well. Which, to a certain extent, defuses your argument that latinos will carry her to victory. Also, last night's debate (where only obama passionately argued against scapegoating illegal immigrants and supported the driver's license issue) and Kennedy's endorsement will help Obama with the latino crowd.

National polls now put Obama w/in 4 points of Clinton. Ostroy, don't you see who has the momentum? Also, you seem to be carrying water for Bill Clinton by arguing that Obama can't win b/c he only won SC b/c of the black vote. He also picked up a remarkable 25% of the white vote, mind you. Also, he won nearly all white Iowa, nearly beat Hillary in snow white New Hampshire, and won the support of white, rural voters in Nevada. Stop trying to brand him as the "black candidate" or the "wine and cheese" candidate. And the young people are coming out in droves in every state to hold a primary. A pattern is emerging that should continue, which will keep this game real tight.

Anonymous said...

Clinton/Obama in '08!
Two Baby Boomers!
Now that is a winning ticket!
McCain will be harder for us to beat.

Ron Paul: He wants to destroy Social Security. Baby Boomers are not going to let that happen.

Young folks will have to support their parents and grandparents. Think about it.

Sidney Condorcet said...

Also, why would he leave on February 6, especially if he's close on delegates, when on February 12, Maryland and Virginia votes? Two states with pretty large African American populations...

Anonymous said...

anonymous 9:43----youre wrong about Ron Paul wanting to destroy social security. He wants to end government being in control of it. He's for the CONCEPT of it but wants to end the system it is under now. He wants no taxes and wants Americans to keep more of their money. With a Ron Paul presidency----when you receive your check, no social security will be taken out, because YOU will get that money and do with it what you wish. In other words---YOU are in control of it----not the corrupt government! Stop watching FOX News.

Anonymous said...

I believe every word Ostroy writes is true. And, I also believe that Hillary can easily win the presidency if her campaign will play over and over and over the shot of McCann hugging Bush and allowing Bush to kiss him right after Bush destroyed and humiliated him in South Carolina during that camapaign It shows McCain to be weak, having no self-esteem, integrity, nor core belief; and, his willingness to do anything to be president. He's recently lied about Romney's position on Iraq. McCann is a loser. Surely his lack of character would convince even a misogynist to vote for Clinton.

steve said...

Andy I hope your right about Clinton as the democratic candidate. I bear no ill will towards Obama he would make a fine president,but women as 50%+ of the population have been sorely underrepresented in the political arena. Hillery`s presidency would go along way to redress that wrong.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to reinforce this from vantage point of a Democrat down here in red-state Texas.

Obama , to my moderate Republican friends, has tagged himself as Uncle Teddy's protege, the keeper of the Kennedy flame. In Texas, that's not a good thing.

He's also been chosen as the #1 liberal in 2007 by National Journal. Again, not an attraction point.

And finally, endorses him. Well my stars, in red Texas, that means he's a Communist for sure!! (you may laugh)

Point is, he campaigns on behalf of the very "elitist limousine liberals" that supported Kerry, according to Rush Limbaugh.

And those far -left liberals in the far-left wing of the party? They give very inspiring speeches, but they NEVER win elections. NEVER. Even JFK had to run to the right of Nixon on the missile issue to be credible and win.

So there we all are.

It appears that Obama will be tagged as another John Kerry.

Good or bad, they never win.

CENTRISTS win. Like it or not, them's the facts.

Anonymous said...

I totally disagree, because the passion is all on the side of Obama. There is simply no sane reason to choose a candidate who divides the party over a candidate who does not divide the party.
Clinton showed that she is afraid of appearing soft on war, she is afraid of being branded un-patriotic by authoritarians, and she is capable of using deception to get what she wants. Obama has incoluated himself against the Republicans primary 2008 argument - that the Democrats are "angry" - I bet you Obama wins.

Cethirien said...

What you are saying basically dooms America. Other countries in the world will have to pick up the pieces and try to isolate the US before it does more damage as the wounded giant, and the decline and fall of the American Empire.

Obama is really the only hope of breaking this headlong plunge into the abyss. That's why there has to be a roll of the dice for something different. And even then, things are uncertain.

And even if Hillary squeaks a win over McCain, she won't have enough coattails to make a difference. Four years of paralysis and centrist politics is basically a prescription for the apocalypse. Really. We don't have enough time to head of the challenges of the 21st century, whether its peak oil, climate change, population pressures.

Her foreign policy certainly will bring about the emergence of a counterweight alliance, which will be humanity's only hope. America will have forsaken its leadership role for good.

Don said...

Really cethirien I don't follow your logic. You say we have to roll the dice and even then things are uncertain and go on to say there is not enough time to head off some of the challenges of the 21st century. So if that is the case, what difference does it make who wins?

Frankly I think Sen. Clinton has the better policies to address many the issues that we face currently in the US. I totally disagree with your contention that Sen. Clinton will not have enough coattails to make a difference. I think it is Sen. Obama that does not have the coattails but will have to be borrowing them from Sen. Kennedy, Sen. Kerry, etc.

I feel Sen. Obama is very naive in thinking that he is going to be able to reach across the aisle and work harmoniously with republicans (when pigs fly) and even more naive in his view of the world. I think he needs some more seasoning working with reality especially on the international level before he ready to step into the presidency.

Would love to see a Clinton/Obama ticket but I do not expect that to happen.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry but Obama proclaims himself as a unifier and his zealous supporters seem to buy that but for many of us Democrats we see him as very divisive. He claimed he would not personally attack his opponents but the first personal attacks came from his supporters. Edwards tried to become the alternative to Hillary by running on different policy. Obama's Hillary alternative strategy was to be against Hillary the person and he gins up hatred within the Democratic Party of a candidate whom he knew might carry the nomination. Also unifiers would not make snide comments like "she's likeable enough" and would have eagerly accpted her handshake with a bright smile.

Also in South Carolina Obama gave homophobic ministers the stage and a microphone at his official events to pander to black evangelical voters. He was silent when they attacked LGBT Americans from his own campaigns stage. His campaigns response was "we got what we wanted out of it" (the Progressive) Hardly the actions of a unifier.

It's like the "hope" and "new politics" mantra. No substance behind it. Let's see Obama stop taqlking about how he will magically or messanically heal division and let's see him actually do something to bring groups that have typically been at odds together. Filling rallies with anti-war lefties is hardly bring the lion and lamb together.

Anonymous said...

I believe that you are right. I
believe that Senator Clinton will
be the nominee, and I believe that
she will be the next president.

Anonymous said...

The Media (republicans) are definitely giving Obama a free-ride because they truly believe he is easier to beat than Clinton -- the polls are in favor of Clinton (even w/the rigging of the polls; i.e. -- they use "probable" phone nos. to get responses -- and are tied to much of the same media execs... that run our media... anyway:) if you go to McCain's website -- on the home page he calls himself, "The only Republican That Can Beat Hillary" so it's pretty obvious they are secretively -- using the media to try to get everyone on the obama side -- realizing that he's going to have to fight with the Senator from NY. She's the only one tough enough to win the Republican Party -- and if any further voting nonsense goes on in November, I am definitely most confident with Hillary (and her husband by her side)fighting the long battle to make sure another theft of our government doesn't happen again.

Frankly, Kerry (and, I'm sorry but Senator Kennedy too agreed/advised Kerry not to fight, and Obama let the cat out of the back in last night's debate: informing that it was Senator Kennedy's Health plan he was going to use... thus, a deal made -- I'll give you, "TED" the credit for the nation getting health care if you support me -- hmmm: what are the other deals? -- And the media is almost ignoring the other half of the Kennedys do support Hillary) Kerry w/Kennedy's advice backed down -- it was Edwards who fought Kerry and wanted to fight the election results -- I don't think either of them make good endorsements...

And, I agree with many of the posters here: Obama makes you "feel good" with his speeches, but he doesn't have any facts to back up his diatribe -- it's almost Bushesque in a democrat's voice.

I think Obama means well, but he frankly, way over talks (and changes with each audience... to get the college vote, to get the black vote, to get the Christian vote, to get the middle of the pack dems and independents and liberal republicans via Reagan brought us together "vote," (which no matter what the media says -- we all know it's a very sore subject w/dems so Obama is either an idiot or absolutely meant it to be complimentary to the gipper) he wil do/say whatever will make people feel good enough to vote for him.

There is a seediness about running a campaign that way that disturbs me... you can't please all of the people all of the time -- yet, that's his platform! Makes you wonder.

Mostly, his record seems: if it was a difficult vote that he would not benefit by -- he just didn't show up to vote or voted, "present." A true leader would take the hard knocks of his convictions and he hasn't.

Finally: AGAIN: If the mainstream media/Republicans are ignoring him now -- and lashing at Hillary -- it means they want Obama to be their opposition -- I guarantee you: if he becomes the nominee we will see the worst negative campaign commercials, editorials, pundit interview agaisnt him. And everyone will be wondering what the hell happened!

Anonymous said...

Ostoy, you are wrong to follow bogus polls. Here is one you cannot ignore:

MoveOn Endorsement Throws Progressive Weight
Behind Barack Obama

3.2 Million Members Nationwide Mobilize to Get Out the Progressive Vote for Senator Obama

Group Has Over 1.7 Million Members In Super Tuesday States

In a resounding vote today, Political Action's members nationwide voted to endorse Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President. The group, with 3.2 million members nationwide and over 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states, will immediately begin to mobilize on behalf of Senator Obama. The vote favored Senator Obama to Senator Clinton by 70.4% to 29.6%.

Senator Obama accepted the endorsement stating:

"In just a few years, the members of MoveOn have once again demonstrated that real change comes not from the top-down, but from the bottom-up. From their principled opposition to the Iraq war - a war I also opposed from the start - to their strong support for a number of progressive causes, MoveOn shows what Americans can achieve when we come together in a grassroots movement for change. I thank them for their support and look forward to working with their members in the weeks and months ahead."

Eli Pariser,'s Executive Director, issued the following statement on the group's endorsement:

"Our members' endorsement of Senator Obama is a clear call for a new America at this critical moment in history. Seven years of the disastrous policies of the Bush Administration have left the country desperate for change. We need a President who will bring to bear the strong leadership and vision required to end the war in Iraq, provide health care to every American, deal with our climate crisis, and restore America's standing in the world. The enormity of the challenges require someone who knows how to inspire millions to get involved to change the direction of our country, and someone who will be willing to change business as usual in Washington. Senator Barack Obama has proved he can and will be that President.

"With 3.2 million members nationwide and over 1.7 million members in states that vote next Tuesday, we'll be able to immediately jump into action in support of Senator Obama's candidacy. We've learned that the key to achieving change in Washington without compromising core values is having a galvanized electorate to back you up. And Barack Obama has our members 'fired up and ready to go' on that front.

"We congratulate Sens. Clinton, Dodd and Biden, former Senator Edwards, Governor Richardson, Congressman Kucinich and former Senator Gravel on running tremendous campaigns. We thank them for their contributions to the important debate that has gripped our nation and for their ongoing engagement with our members. We're looking forward to working together to bring progressive values to the nation's capitol and to end this disastrous war in Iraq. MoveOn members are committed to putting a Democrat in the White House in 2008 and ushering in a new era of progressive values no matter who wins the nomination."

MoveOn members' comments in the vote reflect the reasons they support Senator Obama:

"Obama's grassroots organizing experience and unifying message combine to show he will work for working people and speak to a broad cross section of the American public. We need this," said Linda Blong of Penngrove, CA.

"There are defining moments in our nation's political history and this is one of them. Barack Obama appeals to the very BEST of the American Spirit," said Estina Baker, Hackensack, NJ

"Barack Obama represents CHANGE in so many levels. He brings HOPE that America can, again, be respected by the rest of the world and that Americans can be proud, again, of our leaders!" Isabelle Mollien, Denver, CO

"Obama has the ability to draw people to him, to energize people who generally don't vote, to create an atmosphere of long-overdue possibility around himself and what he could bring to the office. It is my belief that he can re-establish the lost connection between the American people and their leader, and put our country back on course to be a positive force in the world." Matthew Smith in Columbus, OH

MoveOn's endorsement means a fresh infusion of people-power for Obama in the critical days before Super Tuesday. MoveOn will immediately connect thousands of progressive activists into the Obama GOTV volunteer operation. It will also use the same cutting-edge computer-based phone program that made 7 million GOTV calls for Democrats in 2006 to allow MoveOn members to call other MoveOn members in Feb. 5 states and encourage them to vote for Obama.

Today's endorsement is the first time has endorsed a candidate for President in the Democratic primary. Over the past year, MoveOn surveyed a rotating sample of 30,000 members each week to determine their membership's preference in the Democratic presidential primary. For months, MoveOn members were divided among many candidates -- as many waited to see who would take bold progressive positions on the issues. As the primary race has gained momentum, the polling showed a consensus forming and, with Senator John Edward's withdrawal from the race, members made their decision in favor of Senator Obama. The vote took place from Thursday, January 31st to Friday, February 1st.

Kevin Schmidt, Ojai CA

Anonymous said...

Not mentioned so far is Obama's strange body language during the debate. Whereas Hillary looked attentive and interested and "present" while Obama spoke, he looked remote, distant, "out of it" and sinply weird while she was talking.

Anonymous said...

you all have lost your mind. these people dont care about you AT ALL----they will say ANYTHING to get votes to be in power. Clinton voted FOR the war----Im sick of people saying "well, anyone can make a mistake---they had bad intelligence"-----NO, THEY DIDNT! It was all a LIE. Voting YES for the war means only ONE thing-----you didnt READ any of the intelligence----how long does that take? Do you know how many bills are passed in Washington because they dont fucking READ them?? Ron Paul is the ONLY one who TRULY cares about this country's sovereinty----this is why hes the only one that tells the truth! he always votes NO to anything that violates the constitution. he is consistent. watch videos of him 20 years ago---its the same guy! know why?? because the constitution stays the same

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul is a racist. That has been documented and shown on TV. How's that for caring for Americans? How's that for caring for people? THe Constitution says we're all equal under the law. Remember that? Ron Paul doesn't remember it.

Anonymous said...

andy is making the same mistake as all the pundits...the polls mean very little as many remain undecided up until they walk into the polling place...that is what happened in new hampshire...oh, and la opinion has endorsed obama...hillary excites no one, except for the wingnuts who cant wait to bring out all the crap on the clintons once again...and women underrepresented??? dont we have a do nothing female speaker of the house?? and super tuesday will not kill off obama...if he comes close or even wins california, this thing is going to the super delegates, who will make their decisions at the convention