Friday, May 30, 2008
Ok, so I've fallen a bit out of love with Hillary Clinton, but that doesn't mean I am now in love with Barack Obama. While she's lost me on the character front, I still have issues with him in terms of overall electability come November 4th.
An interesting thing has happened this week. With sort of an "a ha!" giddiness, many Democrats--presumably hard-core Obamakins--have been sending me a link to the Election Projection website which indicates a 293-245 electoral vote lead for the junior Senator from Illinois in a head-to-head against the GOP's presumptive nominee John McCain. Now while the site gets to this prediction by making very broad assumptions about who will win what in the general election, I decided to tally the states Obama won versus those that Hillary won (FL/MI not included) using the site's own red/blue gauge. The results should give super-delegates, and Democrats overall, serious reason for concern. Here's how Obama's past and projected victories in the Democratic primaries stack up in the general election according to the Election Projection website:
Only 44% of the above are in any way considered Democratic states. Now take a look at the states Clinton has won:
Hillary's blue states total 57%. So the inference Election Projection is making is that, in terms of the electoral college, none of this really matters, and that Obama will win the general simply by picking up Clinton's big, key blue states come November despite likely losing half or more of his primary states. That's a pretty big overall leap. Let's just hope they, and the Obama supporters, are correct. Judging from all the latest polling of head-to-heads against McCain, and of the key swing states, I'm not so sure.
On another note, we could use your help at The The Adrienne Shelly Foundation. We are a tax-exempt, non-profit organization dedicated in my wife's honor to help carry out her spirit and passion, with the goal of assisting women filmmakers. Adrienne was brutally killed in NYC on November 1, 2006. Through the Foundation, her commitment to filmmaking lives on. We've established scholarships, grants, finishing funds and living stipends at NYU's Tisch School of the Arts/Kanbar Institute of Film; Columbia University; American Film Institute; Women in Film; the Independent Feature Project; the Nantucket Film Festival; and the Sundance Institute. We're very pleased to announce that one of last year's grant recipients, Cynthia Wade, just won an Oscar for Best Documentary Short Subject for "Freeheld." We are proud of Cynthia and to have supported this film. Your generous contribution will go a long way towards helping us continue to achieve our very important mission.