The Ostroy Report

The Ostroy Report is a fresh, aggressive voice for Democrats and a watchdog of the GOP/Tea Party. We support President Obama and the Democratic agenda and seek to preserve the Senate majority while taking back the House. But we're also not afraid to criticize the left when necessary.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Countdown to November: New Polls Indicate Democrats Gaining Momentum in Bid to Recapture Senate. This is Winnable


Less than seven weeks from now Americans will go to the polls to vote in the midterm elections which are shaping up as a referendum on President Bush, the Iraq war and the threat from terrorism. Democrats need six seats to regain control of the Senate, and if current polls are any indication of things to come, there's a very strong chance they just might prevail. Races in key battleground states are getting tighter, with Democrats holding their own in leads over Republican incumbents, while staving off Republican challengers to open seats and seats the Dems currently hold.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Tennessee Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford Jr. leading Republican candidate Bob Corker, 48%-45%. This race was earlier predicted as a toss-up by pundits, but Ford has been gaining steadily. Rasmussen Reports show that in Montana, Jon Tester leads Sen. Conrad Burns 52%-43%. Additionally, in one of the tightest races, Missouri Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill now leads Sen. Jim Talent 45%-42%. In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse has widened his lead to 51%-43% over incumbent Lincoln Chafee, up from a 6% advantage in August. In Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown, who's challenging Sen. Mike DeWine for his Ohio seat, leads 47%-41%. Over in Pennsylvania, the 3rd highest-ranking Republican Rick Santorum trails challenger Bob Casey Jr. by 14 points, up from 11 points last month, according to The Hill. Last but not least is the brewing battle in Virginia, with Sen. George "Macaca" Allen unexpectedly fighting for his political life against tough-as-nails war hero Jim Webb. Survey USA has Allen ahead of Webb just 48% to 45%, a statistical dead heat.

In their bid to hold onto seats, the Democrats are faring extremely well. In Washington, incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell now leads Republican challenger Mike McGavick 52%-35%, up from 6% in the August poll. In the fight for outgoing Sen. Mark Dayton's seat in Minnesota, StarTribune shows DFL U.S. candidate Amy Klobuchar maintaining her commanding lead over GOP rival Mark Kennedy, 56%-32%. Lastly in Michigan, a Detroit News poll has Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow with a solid 54%-34% lead over GOP challenger Mike Bouchard.

On the national spectrum, Democrats lead by a 12-point margin (53%-41%) over Republicans in a generic ballot.

There's been much recent talk that the Democrats' best shot at power is in retaking the House of Representatives. But the Senate is more in play than ever before, and the above polls show that both chambers of Congress are now within reach of Democrats. On a trip to D.C. last week the mood on The Hill among Republicans was gloom with a touch of doom thrown in for good measure. It's almost as if the GOP's already conceding the House, preparing to fight a bloody war to the death over the Senate. Stay tuned.

42 Comments:

  • At 3:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    so, are you a democrat or something?

     
  • At 3:34 PM, Anonymous johnny said…

    Remember all the polls in 2004 giving Kerry the edge and Diebold picked the winner. I'm afraid the same will happen this year and even 2008 if the machines are not replaced.

     
  • At 5:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I wish I could be more positive about all the polls, but the Repubs will just cheat by either rigging the machines or keeping people from voting. I never thought this was how to win elections.

    The Repubs will do anything to stay in power.

     
  • At 6:31 PM, Blogger GOPHater said…

    Bye, bye Georgie. If you drop your soap in the shower, leave it.

     
  • At 7:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Yup, no matter what the polls say the GOP is set to steal the electon again (note Bush's confidence when he says they will hold onto Congress). This time it will be because they MUST or face investigations and worse - JUSTICE... for their corruption and other crimes.

     
  • At 9:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The push/pull is harsh and ongoing. The key is getting the Republicans in front of an 'inevitability we're going to lose' tidal wave. We must keep the intensity up without an ounce of remorse or quarter. Right through November 2008. Mankind is depending on us.

     
  • At 9:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    We all know the Diebold machines are crooked. The CEO promised the Republicans a victory last time and delivered. Why, why, why isn't the possiblity of another theft being addressed? Are the Dems brain dead???? Or, as Amy suggested on this blog, perhaps both parties are in cahoots and they fix the elections as it suits them. Kerry did concede far too quickly and Gore didn't fight the theft. Something is wrong somewhere.

     
  • At 9:47 PM, Blogger Jeany said…

    I'm not "afraid" that Diebold will pick the winner. It's quite possible that elections will be stolen again, and I'm prepared to go into the streets in a way we haven't seen for decades. I'm prepared to take a page from the Mexican response, to take my rejection of election tampering straight into Bush's pants. This will not stand.

    The wider the margins, the more challenging the theft. This will be the fourth election cycle of the century; the first three we know about. I don't think there's going to be any sad sitting around with the long face the morning after. Every loss will be scrutinized, compared will polling data and exit polls. We will fight back.

     
  • At 10:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    These criminals currently in power know they are slowly being painted into a corner. No retroactive cover for war crimes and torture, FISA crimes, lying us into war, treason by way of Valerie Plame, 9-11, I could go on and on. They are like vampires and cannot afford the cleansing sunlight of the subpeona nor oversight of a Democratic house nor senate. What would you do in their situation to avoid sure jail sentences for the majority of them and their war profiteering friends? Unfortunatelty for us, ANYTHING, so expect to see anything and everything as these cornered rats get closer to Nov. 7th. God help us all and America!

     
  • At 10:42 PM, Anonymous Savvy PA senior said…

    I hope and pray these polls are right. John Murtha is my Rep. but so is santorum (lower case to suit his posture) His ads show that he has to sink to a new low.
    Bob Casey is soft spoken and not a viper. Unfortunately, that may be what the voters are looking for. I am totally disgusted with the low grade ads Little Ricky has been showing. Bob Casey has more class in his little finger that rs has in his whole body. He is such a peacock. Come on PA-get out and vote. rs bragged on Meet the Press that he was the #3 man and hopes to be the #2 republican. He has no intention of stopping there. He wants to be #1. God help us if this happens. VOTE CASEY FOR SENATE

     
  • At 11:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I would agree with the doomsayers if this was a presidential election. Especialy since the problems in voting have not been fixed (YET)

    BUT, the repubs did not expect so many seats and many of these particular seats in play so they didn't rig up the vote cheating system in many of these areas. This is where there is hope!!!!

    Yes, there will be shenanagins,....but in most of the seats the dems will take the repubs were not prepared to carry out their shenanigans.......

    Because of this fact we will retake the house and quite possibly the senate.

    All we need is the house to fix the voting shenanigans. legislation can be passed with 2 years to spare till the next election = a biggy 2008. Even a repub controled senate would not vote down a voting bill that seeks to fix problems and the dems make very very very public.

    Be hopeful my friends....times are a changing

     
  • At 11:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    PS back on the presidential thing....they only had to and did set up at most 2-3 sweet spots to fix the election......which they did....

    The system was not set up yet to take these seats that they never thought they would have to fight for

     
  • At 11:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    How long does it take to set up the system? They've had time and seven weeks yet to go. They are in desperate trouble NOW if the Dems get power and the Republicans with thier money and vast network of "crooks" they can steal this election easily.

     
  • At 12:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Our goal in the short term is the defeat of any right wing conservative or Republican.

    In the long term we need to relegate these right wingers to 4th party gnats who occasionally offer a minor point on a minor bill.

    Thus, we need people to take back the republican party from the right wing nuts aSAP

     
  • At 8:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    12:28 is right. It is going to take all of us to take back our country. The disgusted Republicans have to help too. They need to take their party back from the war mongers and the religious repubs that want to turn our once great country into a theocracy. They need to vote for the Dem or else stay home and not vote at all. How ironic that these same people do not see the thercracies inflicting their ways on the people in the Middle East.

    Too many religious right Repubs do not follow the Prince of Peace. If they did, they could never vote Republican.

     
  • At 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Jesus Christ what a bunch of whiners. If you think the goddam machines are rigged get off your ass and do something about it. Write your senator/rep, lobby your state and local governement, (Yes you can lobby. Just go to thier office and ask to speak with them. Be polite but be persistent.), this is something everyone should do, volunteer to become an election judge. Do something, rather than sit at a keyboard and whine about Republicans stealing elections. God its so annoying.

     
  • At 9:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The self-righteious Repug known as Anon 9:39 is making the typical Repug idiotic mistake: assuming that for which he has no evidence. He has no idea at all what we are doing in this regard. We could be writing AND acting. However, the problem of course with writing our senators is that THEY ARE REPUBLICANS. I saw that was ineffective years ago. 9:30 should have realized that before writing his hysterical diatribe.

     
  • At 11:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    9:39 is so petulant. He sounds like Bush when he became annoyed at Powell for criticizing him. Have those Republicans no ability to act like adults? They don't think like adults but surely they can learn how to act like adults at least in public.

     
  • At 1:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Please take a closer look at what 9:39 said. There is a very important suggestion for action in the post: sign up to be a poll worker. No matter where you live, you can do this. Call your Board of Elections or your local Democratic Party. Our challenge is to put in tech-savvy, intelligent Democratic poll workers to counteract the Republican poll workers--makes it harder for them to challenge voters or otherwise make things difficult. You will get paid for your work.

    I did not think 9:39 was petulant so much as exasperated. We're all upset, and the antidote is action. See you at the next precinct lit drop.

     
  • At 2:44 PM, Anonymous johnny said…

    It's not the poll workers duty to police the voting machines,it's the machines that we're so worried about. They can be hacked and that has been proven over and over again so until that is fixed the election results can be fixed.

    Lou Dobbs has been on this case for some time now and finally getting it out to the ever stupid public. I think it's a little late though for this November and the GOP will once again take control no matter what the polls tell us.

    Here we go again!

     
  • At 3:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    So where does that leave us?

    Are we going to just take it when the polls say one thing (not close) and our candidate is winning all night only to find at the last moment a Repub surge???

    Are we going to just be whimps or demand action?

     
  • At 3:33 PM, Blogger Jeany said…

    The established principle in the first 3 thefts is that it's not necessary to steal big, because multiple small larcenies can get the desired result without leaving a big trail of evidence. You only have to examine the multiple redundant efforts in Ohio to see the logic. Just because there isn't a single national candidate doesn't mean they won't attempt to steal wherever they can. That's why I would urge everyone who gives a shit to take the pledge to go Mexican wherever the results are suspect.

    We have to learn from experience. I don't know who commissions and pays for exit polls, but we need more of those, not less. We need to make a very big deal of how correct the exit polls were in Ohio in 2004, and how the result was evidence of theft that is only now being appreciated and understood.

    We have to send the message that not only will election theft NOT be tolerated, voting machines and systems that undermine public confidence in our democracy will be tolerated even less. We have several individuals and groups who've worked tireless to understand the weaknesses in the systems that are being sold, and to educate the public to the dangers. Avi Rubin's book Brave New Ballot is an authoritative source for understanding and blueprint for action. Congressman Rush Holt wrote legislation that would have gone a long way toward addressing the problems, and it was overwhelmingly ignored by Republicans, both leadership and membership. This is not a partisan issue, and the rejection of this attempt to address valid concerns underscores the intent of the ruling party. More than anything else, this informs us.

    Be not afraid. Be determined. Be involved locally. Be prepared to go into the streets.

    Dear Anon 9:39 — this is not whining. Your calling it that sounds like partisan smirking.

     
  • At 3:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    No chance Harold will win, baby. You gotta know by now that it's "no holds barred." The Republicans will do anything to keep that Frist seat if only for the symbolism. Therefore, expect an October surprise to blow Junior off his feet.

     
  • At 5:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    All well and good that we get involved and aggressively protest any theft but if the Democratic candidates cave as quickly as Gore and Kerry then it's all over. We have got to, simply got to get some kind of action from those Democrats who have power. How can we get that from them? Maybe we should take to the streets BEFORE the election and theft.

     
  • At 10:00 PM, Blogger Jeany said…

    Maybe we should. And maybe we shouldn't be Democrats, in the Big-D meaning of the word. Or maybe we need to Bigger-D than we are. If more of us would go to our local party executive meetings, we would BE the party. In probably half of the county parties across the country, any of us could show up with four friends and represent a voting majority. Showing up is more than half the battle.

    No way Harold Ford will win? Geez, what about McCaskill, didn't I just read that the NRSC is dumping close to a million bucks on that race? Boogeda boogeda, I done skeert mesel' right outta winnin.' Listen, Anon 5:00, if you don't got the mental game, you got no game a-tall.

    I'd like to be Mama to a few of you for a while; I might not be able to fix you, but by the time I finished, the word afraid would never pass your lips again.

    You've been Bushed, you ninny.

    Andy's right. This election is winnable.

     
  • At 9:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    DEMOCRATS SUPPORT VOTER FRAUD -
    REJECT BILL REQUIRING VOTERS SHOW VALID ID.

     
  • At 10:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The Dems are being openly criticized for being so mealy-mouthed. Today on Imus it was pointed out that Webb was foolish not to have taken advantage of "getting" Allen, but he chose to take the "high road" which is the road to defeat. THen on another program a commenator remarked that the Dems, including the most prominent have not taken advantage of the trouble the Republicans are in and the UN speech by Bush. Last week Barack Obama, who is a fighter, was asked if he didn't think the Republicans had done some good. He said, "yes, of course," and spent the rest of his time on the air listing the GOOD THINGS THE REPUBLICANS HAD DONE, and as his time ran out he quickly added "but they need a plan." All we remember is the "good things the Republicans have done." This is a sorry bunch of "leaders" we have representing us in the Democratic Party. Their "group strategy" of rising above the fray is not working. I'll vote for them because there is no other choice but my vote will be wasted.

     
  • At 11:02 AM, Anonymous johnny said…

    This morning Chris Mathews was on Imus (why do I even listen to that show) and he was saying how the GOP could win the Congress AGAIN! What the hell is he talking about, the polls show that the House is in the Dems pocket (for now). He said Bush is coming back really strong, yet the ABC pool had Bush at still 37% (the WSJ had Bush at 44%). The reason is Rove has made Bush go out and do a “major” speech 3 or 4 times a week and the stupid (Republican) networks televise every word. Why don’t they give the Dems a chance to do a rebuttal and why aren’t the Dems all over the news countering? Rove is a master and once again he’s doing his “thing”.

    Chris did say that the news networks “suck” and my response if I was Imus would have been, “and what are YOU doing to make it better”. Chris wanted to know why the war isn’t talked about every night on the news, but we know that the White House is telling the three major networks what they can and can not talk about.

    Every newspaper in the land should have on their front pages every day the causality count and wounded count to keep reminding people what is happening over there.

     
  • At 1:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Johnny is right. But my question is why aren't the DEMS doing someting about the Bush/Rove campaign that's effectively promoting Bush as pointed out by C.Matthews and the poll results. And, why aren't the DEMS making sure that the TV stations report the Iraq news and all other news we should hear. THe DEMS appear IMPOTENT and that does not inspire confidence or win votes. What is their problem? Who is calling the shots (as when Kerry's campagin manager was so interested in his clothes and color scheme making him appear frivolous) that are ruining the DEMS' chances? A Republican mole???????

     
  • At 1:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Democrats don't just APPEAR impotent. Democrats ARE IMPOTENT.

    Has anyone yet determined which DNC speech writer wrote Hugo Chavez's and Ahmadinejad's speeches ??

     
  • At 2:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I've got a question about these polls...I'm a PA resident and Casey's lead is only 6 points, not 11! Once again, democrats are being complacent and simply assuming that "rational" Americans will vote for them as a matter of course. This could not be further from the truth. Although I am voting democrat this november, it is with a heavy heart. The democratic leadership is so blindingly out of touch with mainstream American culture that the original, Roosevelt-esque democratic policies of good economics and responsible government have been lost in asanine debate over certain devisive issues. My advice: Dems, relax on abortion and gay marriage; Republicans: relax on abortion and gay marriage. When 2 sides refuse to see each other's perspective as valid, the public will side with the least obnoxious...which is, sad to say, the Republicans. Good luck this November, but I hope that the past 6 years will make the Democrats more aware that they cannot afford to start dictating culture to the mainstream any more than the GOP. Oh, feel free to comment on this-my email is tachyon_flux2000@yahoo.com

     
  • At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    To Anonymous 5:01 pm (9-19-06): You express two concerns, that the Republicans will hack the vote this November and that they will suppress the vote as well.

    With respect to your concerns about vote suppression, there is something you can do, and that is to serve as a pollworker or pollwatcher in the upcoming general election. As a pollworker especially you would be on site at the polling place all day and able (most of the time) to observe what is going on. If, for example, a voter were being intimidated, you would more than likely notice and be able to take action. I worked as a machine operator during the primary election this past August in Tennessee and noted problems with two touchscreen machines. These are just two of the irregularities you could detect as a pollworker or pollwatcher. Obviously, a pollworker wouldn't be able to detect the purging of voters from electronic voting rolls or to identify malicious source coding in a voting machine, but the kinds of things a pollworker can do, such as taking action to protect a person's right to vote without being harassed, are most definitely worthwhile.

    For me a terrific bonus to working the polls last August was gaining knowledge about the system of elections in my county, and in my state as well, information that is very useful for anyone wishing to protect our democracy.

    I feel strongly that the only thing that will save our republic is citizen involvement in our election system. Please consider serving as a pollworker this year, and further, encourage your friends to do so as well.

     
  • At 5:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    If The Democrats Don't get in Congress and retake it this time I fear that our Democracy will be gone forever. Bush will continue to circumvent the U.S. Constitution and we need some checks and balances to stop him!

     
  • At 10:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The very bad news is it's hard to tell the Democrats from the Republicans. The Glover Park Group, a Democratic Consultant Group and good friends of the Clintons, was hired by Verizon to stop the Net Neutrality and Internet Freedom. They've partnered with a Republican consulting firm "to publish bogus polling information in a desperate attempt to convince Congress the public doesn't support Net Neutrality." All this information is from MoveOn and we are urged to call Glover Park Group at (202) 337-0808 and tell them "it's wrong to sell their credibility as Democrats to push bogus polling informtion opposing Net Neutrality. (You see the Dems are willing to lie like the Republicans to get their way (and money.)) The entire report and background can be found on MoveOn. I've forgotten how Hillary is connected to Verizon, but this friendly connection with the Glover Park Group tarnishes her even further What hope do we have when the Democrats are now mirror images of the Republicans?

     
  • At 2:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    checks and balances dont even exist anymore. It is time to awaken from your slumber.

    The Federal Reserve bank controls America. do a little bit of research. you'll know the truth about who makes our decisions
    "Give me control of a nations currency, and I care not who makes its laws."--Amsel Rothschild a man whose descendents dictate what the "Federal Reserve System" will do with America’s finances.

    aaron russo has a new movie out, America Fascism to Freedom, you should check it out, as none of these debates matter, pinning us against each other leaves them out of the spotlight.
    putty in their hands.

     
  • At 11:19 AM, Anonymous bgerard said…

    The one thing that gives me hope for this election is that Delay dropped out. If the Repugs were going to hack the vote, why would Delay drop out?

     
  • At 7:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Of course, the Repugs will try to rig the vote, but only if it's close. Unless we show up in large numbers, it will be harder to rig the outcome. Haven't you noticed in the past it's alway 49-51? then the Christian Reich will start crowing "it was us! the value voters who made the difference!" BULLSHIT!!!

    Don't be afraid to vote! show up in record numbers! and if they try to steal the vote, make some noise! They did it in the Ukraine! They did it in Mexico! We are not a nation of whiners!

    If you are worried about waiting in long lines or having your precinct being switched on election day, you can always vote at your County Registrar of Voters prior to election day instead of Grandma Goebel's garage.

    Beware - DO NOT ask for an absentee ballot! It is easy for those to get lost in the mail or mysteriously disapear.

    Before you vote, ask for a paper ballot if it is possible.

    So get off your butts and vote dammit!

     
  • At 11:23 PM, Anonymous Libby the Lib said…

    Budha! bah bah bah Budha!

    I promise to vote 15 times this election.

     
  • At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    11:23 Do you have someone to show you where the polls are?

     
  • At 2:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    me don't need someone to show me where the polls are? I'ze a Democrat. The tartcart will pick me up at my house and drive me to the polls.

     
  • At 3:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The Republicans won't let you vote you ninny because you're too dumb to see through their abuse at the polls. To you, they'll probably intimidate by requiring a literacy test. My advice to you would be to stick with your own kind of people and then they'll let you vote Repubolican.

     
  • At 9:59 AM, Anonymous Neal Boortz said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     

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