The Ostroy Report

The Ostroy Report is a fresh, aggressive voice for Democrats and a watchdog of the GOP/Tea Party. We support President Obama and the Democratic agenda and seek to preserve the Senate majority while taking back the House. But we're also not afraid to criticize the left when necessary.

Monday, March 17, 2008

New Poll Shows Big Uptick for Obama. Picks Up 9 Iowa Super-Delegates. Florida Decides Against Do-Over. His Momentum's Back


Ok, so Sen. Hillary Clinton's putting up a good fight to stay alive in the 2008 Democratic race for president. But, following some appreciable big-state losses recently, the momentum has clearly shifted back to Sen. Barack Obama.

A brand-new CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll released Monday has Obama leading Clinton 52%-45%. This is an impressive lift from last month's Clinton lead of 49%-46%. It would appear that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, the "monster" blunder and the Tony Rezko scandal have not impacted the campaign much, if at all.

Even more good news for Obama. Over the weekend Iowa held its county convention re-caucus where he picked up an additional nine delegates while Hillary lost one. These were primarily previously-committed John Edwards delegates.

And late Monday Florida's Democratic Party decided against a do-over, dealing a potential huge blow to the Clinton campaign, which had hope to eventually pick up the Sunshine State and the majority of its 210 delegates.

So, is Hillary done? While the odds are against her, she's still in this battle. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain 51%-46%. The fact is, Americans never re-elect a political party during a recession, so both Clinton and Obama look good this November against the ancient GOP relic Sen. John McCain.

Conventional wisdom says don't rule out Hillary just yet. On ABC's Good Morning America Monday, former President Bill Clinton gave the following analysis: "If Sen. Obama wins the popular vote then it'll be easier, but if Hillary wins the popular vote but can't quite catch up in the delegate votes, then you have to just ask yourself which is more important and who's more likely to win in November...and I don't know that it'll be an easy decision, but that's what leaders sign up for." Again, if neither Obama or Clinton reaches the required minimum 2025 delegates to win the nomination, then Bubba's right in that the super-delegates will have to survey the entire landscape, not just total delegates, in deciding the fate of both candidates....and the party.

37 Comments:

  • At 10:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    those polls may be a bit early to pick up the impact of the nutty preacher.

     
  • At 10:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Real Clear Politics has a USA Today/Gallup poll with Clinton over McCain and McCain over Obama.

    It's too early to say Obama is back. He isn't.

     
  • At 12:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The latest zogby poll has McCain over both Hillary and Obama

     
  • At 7:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    you can make a poll give you what ever result,you want.just think it's the cnn's poll,you kmow the people like wolf blitzer,john king and jack caferty,who have never had anything good to say about clinton,they have defended obama 100% with the racist preacher,and now we should trust a poll done by them. GET REAL

     
  • At 9:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Ostroy -- sounds like you've started drinking the Obama Kool-aide. 7:55 is right -- what makes you think the likes of the CNN and MSNBC crowd tell the truth. And, for me, nothing Obama says this a.m. in his speech can change my mind. He is a racist and I, personally, would suffer were he to be president.

     
  • At 9:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Now Ostroy, the Clinton shill, is pushing a poll by the Clinton News Network?

    Hillary succeeded in making Obama unelectable. The latest Rasmussen poll shows 56% of the electorate is less likely to vote for Obama due to the racist preachers remarks. We already know that 50% of the electorate decided long ago that they would never vote for Hillary.

    What are the Dems going to do to now? We all know they are too racist to elect a black man.

    The moderate John McCain is looking better every day.

     
  • At 10:00 AM, Anonymous bkln said…

    What a bunch of pathetic comments.

    Why do all you scared white Republicans feel it necessary to come waste time and space over here?

     
  • At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    To 9:45AM - How did Hillary have anything to do with the racist preacher? He did that himself by spending 20 years with this man as his spiritual advisor. And now claims he didn't know the type of sermons he gave? This really strains his credibility.

     
  • At 11:59 AM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Read Obama's speech, please. It's one of the most searing, honest, nuanced reflections on race and faith in America we've seen this generation.

     
  • At 12:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    bkln,
    You are obviously a racist. Do you always feel the need to comment on someone's skin color ?
    In regards to posting here, I was posting here before you ever decided to start visiting this blog. I will continue to do so, especially since I know it bothers you. Just like an illegal immigrant - I'm here to stay and there is nothing you can do about it.

    BTW, I listened to Obama's speech and it was pretty good. Hillary is probably pissing in her pants. Unfortunately for Obama, I will not be voting for him because I don't believe America needs a nanny state. I'll be voting for the moderate John McCain. If by chance Obama wins the Presidency, I will back him as he would be my President too. I bet you can't say that about Democrats if McCain was elected.

    Hillary, on the other hand, would just be bad for the country. There is no way Hillary can win this election or it will be the final nail in America's coffin.

     
  • At 12:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    he gave a good speach,whippy-twang,if you listened,to the whole speach he's covering his ass.he NOW justify's the reverands remark's by saying you have got to see where the rev's coming from,you can bet there are tapes out there showing obama sat through sermons of hate,but to his credit he did see where a lot of white people have a bitch,80% of the white working class in this country are not responsible for slavery,either they or their relatives never owned slaves or did they live in this country at the time of slavery,and my only problem when afro- americans bring slavery up,how come they always forget to tell how it was afro-americans who sold the slaves to the whites in the beginning.nothing like a full circle

     
  • At 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I am sickened and frightened that the possible next president of America blames me, a white, person for all the dire conditions, past and present; and for all the unpromising prospects in store for black people, Hispanic people, Oriental people and immigrants if he is not elected to change things.

    Lyndon Johnson and all the countless whites who fought and died for civil rights were not mentioned in his review of American history. The white people who have worked since that time were not mentioned. He metnioned the "evil" in America not overshawdoing the good. Implicit in his speech was that the "evil" is white. I fear he will try to make "white" the "new black, as he sees it.

     
  • At 1:07 PM, Anonymous Rob said…

    12:23,

    I urge you to read, READ, Obama's speech. IF you can honestly say that he "blames" white people -- that they are "evil", then there is really no hope for you. You either are so bitter that you cannot see and hope; or are so, sorry to say, mentally deficient, that I really want you to stay home on election day, PLEASE.

    I just finished reading his speech. It was magnificent! I will be proud to, and smart by voting for him. Move aside all others.

     
  • At 2:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Rob -- You're the Repug mole.Of course you'll vote for him in the primaries so he'll be the candidate McCain can beat by using all this Wright material. Nice try.

     
  • At 2:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Let's see. Despite the hateful and treasonous remarks made by Wright, Obama claims he's a good man because he helped the poor, single mothers and AIDS victims. I wonder how many of those he helped were white. Or was it just in the oppressed black community mistreated by whites. Jimmy Carter also helps the poor to get houses with his Habitat program. I know for a fact many if not most of those he helps are black. Jimmy Carter also left the Baptist CHurch when it demeaned women in its doctrine.

    Wright remains a racist, even after Obama's "brilliant" speech.

     
  • At 2:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Obama's speech that everybody is thrilled by was a very skewed account of American history and the role a countless number of whites have played in helping Afro Americans. For one, half the country fought a war to free them. Countless others died in the civil rights conflict under Johnson. In the meantime the Democratic Party has by and large fought consistenly for the rights of blacks. That is, after the southern Democrats left to join the Republican Party during the civil rights fight.

    Not only that, does any sane person believe Wright when he says whites gave blacks AIDS and that they send in dope to ruin them.

     
  • At 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    2:26 PM,
    You seriously sound so stupid calling Rob "the repug mole". I assume that are hinting that he is a double agent on this blog which is even more ridiculous considering the fact that this is a public blog on the internet.

    Are you trying to drown out any form of discussion or dissension on the blog? I imagine you are a real joy to talk to in real life. People probably just agree with you so you don't attack their character.

    I come here as a independent/libertarian/conservative looking for a decent conversation. You are a waste of time because all you do is attack character while adding zero value to the conversation.

    I disagree with most of you about most things, but at least people like Rob and Sidney know how to communicate in a civil manner. I guess you have no interest in "bringing the country together" like I hear so much from the Democrats.

    I used to post on here with a name, but whenever I tried to start up an intelligent conversation my character was attacked by the likes of you. Now I post anonymously because I know it bothers people that would just default to attacking my character and I want to give your types less to work with.

    If there were more progressives like Rob and Sidney here, I would use a name try to engage in an intelligent debate. My opinions can be swayed with an intelligent conversation and I would think progressives would be trying to 'convert' people to their cause.

    What's your excuse for posting anonymously ?

     
  • At 3:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    2:47 I bet you post as Rob and used to post as Larry. You sound just like him. He, too, always made personal attacks and just could not stick to the issues. Oh, well, God Bless America we're all free to say what we will.

     
  • At 3:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    It was pleasing to hear Obama admit that he was naive in not realzing that Wright would be a problem. He didn't need to point out that naivety demonstrated his poor judgment. That is obvious.

    He also admitted, after lying, that he had heard some of Wright's hateful remarks. Does that wipe the slate clean? I don't think so.

     
  • At 3:25 PM, Blogger bacci40 said…

    today, mccain confused shiites and sunis

    isnt that a bigger story than if obamas preacher said that america is run by rich white males?

    confused about foreign policy, confused about the economy, confused on whether to put sox or shoes on first

    a dem chimp could easily defeat mcfeeble

     
  • At 3:40 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Anon 2:47,

    I appreciate your kind words. The comment sections of both liberal and conservative blogs are unfortunately rife with reflexive demagoguery and sectarian sniping. Every one of us has come to each of our deeply treasured opinions as a result of our unique set of experiences have shaped our individual worldview. Though there are indeed a rotten few on both sides of the political divide who opine in bad faith, I still don't find it helpful to ascribe malicious intentions or a cruel heart to those who differ with me as to policy. After all, liberals have historically embraced both pluralism and complexity. One of the reasons why I was so moved by Senator Obama's speech this morning was because of his refusal to do what is politically expedient and just throw his Pastor and church under the bus. The way in which he painted racial resentments (both by blacks and whites) impressed me in that he didn't oversimply and how he delineated a complex reality, for which we are all complicit in its rendering. I worry that his appeal will be ineffective, however, as the denizens of our nation have proven time and time again to be unable to grasp complex realities. For instance, I still believe that many Americans are unable to be critical, in any meaningful capacity, of their own country. Until our citizens are able to recognize that our nation is not infallible, that other nations of the world have legitimate grievances against it, that our government often favors the entrenched privileged interests over those of John Q. Public, that racism/xenophopia/jingoism are very alive in this nation, then things will not change.

    However much I believe that Obama is the right candidate in this, our nation's darkest hour, I believe we will fail to grasp his historic candidacy. Obama is a man of vision and temperance. He is calm, cool, measured and a principled progressive. He does not ascribe to his conservative foes any evil intent, and he will bestride the political divide like a colossus. However, our nation has shown itself a nation that cares more about symbols than substance. So Obama will likely be sunk by the flag pin issue, Michelle Obama's "proud american" gaffe, the b.s. pledge issue, the concocted muslim meme, and the Rev. Wright controversy. (Mind you, I still believe that Clinton would lose due to her own excessive baggage.)

    However, I'm given hope by McCain's response today re: Rev. Wright. I forget where I read it (I think off Politico.com) but McCain, when questioned about his views of Wright and Obama's relationship, said that he had no doubt that Obama loves his country dearly and that candidates should be judged on what they say and do and nothing more. (Paraphrasing) Obviously Sen. McCain is trying to avoid people turning Hagee into a millstone around McCain's neck. But it's instructive in that McCain will not fight this race the same way tactically that Bush/Rove would have fought it. McCain, love him or hate him, is an honorable man. Liberals can lobb plenty of rhetorical grenades his way, but McCain is a funny, decent, and pragmatic when it comes to policy. He's been willing to deal with Democrats on immigration, campaign finance, judges, climate change, torture, tax cuts, etc...

    I still won't vote for him (seeing as we can't afford his likely war in Iran), but I would counsel my progressive friends against underestimating his political ability and pragmatism.

     
  • At 4:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Obama's people just made him the democrate against Mccain.his people just put a stop to the revote in michigan,with Obama's people stopping the revotes in florida and michigan,he will most likely be the dems's pick. all those reagan democrates that were planning to return home to the democratic party will be staying on vacation for 4 more years,con-grates Obama fans,you won,was it worth 4 more years of a republican in the whitehouse,thats what you will need to answer,P.S. don't turn when that happens and blame the clintons,YOU'VE BLAMED ENOUGH ON THEM

     
  • At 4:38 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    There's an old saying "It's better to die on your feet than live on your knees."

    Clinton as our nominee is a capitulation, in my view. She's uninspiring, triangulating, small bore, and in the pocket of corporate interests (in addition to always being at the epicenter of scandal). While Obama may lose to McCain, at least we'd be dying while on our feet. He attempts to be a liberal Reagan, while Clinton is trying to be, well, Clinton. He's the finest political orator our nation has seen in decades. He is charming and has a commanding intellect. If Providence desires that we are to lose, let's offer a unabashed progressive, rhetorically giften lion to fight to the death, rather than Clinton, who offers nothing but the ancient baggage and standard partisan rhetoric.

     
  • At 4:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Sidney is wrong again. The political salvation for Obama was NOT TO DUMP Wright. He,having no base in the black community when he started, attached himself to Wright, his church and the people there. Had he left the church or denounced Wright, he would have lost the black vote. Already black ministers have rebuked his remarks about Wright, and they warned him. He did the only thing he could do -- keep his alligiance to Wright. If he lost the black vote he would lose his majority.

    Surely, Sidney, you see the difference from seeing American's faults and even criticizing it from and damning nd spewing hattred toward it. The difference is not subtle. I believe in the old "My country, right or wrong." Don't you? Isn't that the kind of loyalty to his mentor that you admire in Obama?

     
  • At 4:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    sidney's good,trash them to the end,how sidney is,you can see why obama could set listening for 20 years to a racist preaching and think it's OK,he's got backers like sidney

     
  • At 4:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I really don't choose to die on my knees or on my feet. Nor do I choose to die of starvation, or die living on the street, or die by having to walk twenty miles to work and beack every day because I can't afford gas, or for any other reason caused by the wrong President.

    I choose to use my wits and survive by voting for Hillary and trust that Bill is nearby as her advisor and relax in the assurance they she/he will fix the economy.

    IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID and I do mean STUPID.

     
  • At 5:09 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Seeing as how I am not religious, I would never use the word "Damn" in the conventional sense. However, I must admit, that there have been times when I have cried out, in frustration and desperation,"F*ck America!!"(after Katrina, Abu Ghraib, after seeing Taxi to the Darkside, after needlessly invading Iraq where HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Iraqis and THOUSANDS of Americans have perished, after Bush v. Gore, after Terri Schiavo, after the political firings of US attorneys, after waterboarding, after tax cuts for the rich, after the passage of a prescription drug benefit that didn't give the government the right to negotiate prices, after the reelection of George W. Bush, after the Kelo decision, in response to 47 million Americans still without healthcare, after illegal wiretapping of American citizens, and on and on)

    I don't believe in "My country, right or wrong." I believe in the words rendered by Lincoln at his Cooper Union Address: "Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it." I'm proud of my country when she does right by her citizens, and I will reserve my pride for those moments. If I were to give in to patriotic fervor and express my pride for my country, no matter what my country has done, it would only serve to cheapen what it means to be proud.

     
  • At 5:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Sidney, Who cares?

     
  • At 5:30 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Umm, the poster at 4:50pm, you tool! He posed the question, and I answered it. What's your point?

     
  • At 6:29 PM, Anonymous Rob said…

    2:26,
    Thanks! Funny how trolls work.

    As usual Sidney is a voice of reason and civility. I appreciate his posts and look forward to reading. Your posts are so lengthy that I must ask: Do you have a job? :)

     
  • At 9:45 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Ha. I am but one of the many people living a life of quiet desperation. Yes, I have a job..,Luckily, one that allows for quite a few five minute "breaks."

     
  • At 10:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I read the Huffington Report and a good many other blogs. I very much appreciate Ostroy's insights and comments so I continue to read it However, there's not another blog that I and my friends know of which has so many immature comments and exchanges between contributors. I can only guess a high school teacher has assigned Ostroy as required reading. Maybe Mr.Ostroy, if you wrote a new column every day they wouldn't get a chance. sorry if I over-step. You man not mind these exchanges, and I can skip over them as well as anybody else can.

    I want to make an observation but expect a sophomoric response. Here goes: After listening to most of the TV news shows tonight it became very clear that Wright's comments are typical of a good number of black preachers and so he is not considered a radical in the black communty. I am horrified that there is so much hate from the Afro American commuity for white people and America. The lie about AIDS is also distrubing. This undoubtedly means that with this information out Obama cannot win the presidency. Obama didn't even address the God damn America remark.

     
  • At 8:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I'm trying to figure out Obama's 50 state program,him and his people on his campain just pissed off the voters in florida and michigan,you might be able to win without florida,but michigan too.noway in hell is that going to happen,michigan is more liberal than ohio.penn will either vote for clinton or maccain,they'll never vote for obama.After him (OBAMA) throwing GRAMMA under the bus yesterday as a white racist, I don't think he did a good job of getting the blue collar vote,needless to say.

     
  • At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    A black pundit on CNN yesterday said that blacks are the only minority in our country brought over here in chains to be slaves. That is true and I regret that part of our history However, I had to wonder would she be happier living in Africa today, which would be the case had her ancestors remained there.

    Second, Obama's grandmoter lived in Hawaii when he ws a child. I wonder how many blacks she saw on the street to fear. I fear he lies to make a point.

     
  • At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Maybe Obama's Grandmother had a tinge of racism because in her old age she had to work and take care of the son abandoned by his black father. Of course, tobe fair. his mother also abandoned her child to be taken care of by her parents. Apparently the grand parents were loving and I guess sturggled to send him to expensive schools.

     
  • At 12:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Obama proved himself to be a perpetuator of inequality by pointing fingers at all the rest of America for his poor choices.

    It was whitey's fault. Grammy's fault. The media's fault.

    Where did he take ownership for his own choice to help perpetuate racism in the black community?

     
  • At 5:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    kinda makes you wonder if gramma will still have welcome mat out for obama at christmas,seeings he acused her of being a white racist to give him cover to keep the reverand wright around for 20 years

     

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