Monday, March 17, 2008
New Poll Shows Big Uptick for Obama. Picks Up 9 Iowa Super-Delegates. Florida Decides Against Do-Over. His Momentum's Back
Ok, so Sen. Hillary Clinton's putting up a good fight to stay alive in the 2008 Democratic race for president. But, following some appreciable big-state losses recently, the momentum has clearly shifted back to Sen. Barack Obama.
A brand-new CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll released Monday has Obama leading Clinton 52%-45%. This is an impressive lift from last month's Clinton lead of 49%-46%. It would appear that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, the "monster" blunder and the Tony Rezko scandal have not impacted the campaign much, if at all.
Even more good news for Obama. Over the weekend Iowa held its county convention re-caucus where he picked up an additional nine delegates while Hillary lost one. These were primarily previously-committed John Edwards delegates.
And late Monday Florida's Democratic Party decided against a do-over, dealing a potential huge blow to the Clinton campaign, which had hope to eventually pick up the Sunshine State and the majority of its 210 delegates.
So, is Hillary done? While the odds are against her, she's still in this battle. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Clinton ahead of McCain 51%-46%. The fact is, Americans never re-elect a political party during a recession, so both Clinton and Obama look good this November against the ancient GOP relic Sen. John McCain.
Conventional wisdom says don't rule out Hillary just yet. On ABC's Good Morning America Monday, former President Bill Clinton gave the following analysis: "If Sen. Obama wins the popular vote then it'll be easier, but if Hillary wins the popular vote but can't quite catch up in the delegate votes, then you have to just ask yourself which is more important and who's more likely to win in November...and I don't know that it'll be an easy decision, but that's what leaders sign up for." Again, if neither Obama or Clinton reaches the required minimum 2025 delegates to win the nomination, then Bubba's right in that the super-delegates will have to survey the entire landscape, not just total delegates, in deciding the fate of both candidates....and the party.