The Ostroy Report

The Ostroy Report is a fresh, aggressive voice for Democrats and a watchdog of the GOP/Tea Party. We support President Obama and the Democratic agenda and seek to preserve the Senate majority while taking back the House. But we're also not afraid to criticize the left when necessary.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Obama Campaign Hits Another Snag. Do New Polls Spell Trouble?


It appears the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama has been appreciably impacted by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, raising new questions about the Illinois Democrat's electability against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the November presidential election. New polls indicate that Obama could be in real trouble not only in a head-to-head with McCain, but that Democrats could be shifting back to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the current fiery Democratic contest.

In the most significant turnaround, a new CBS poll shows McCain now leads both Obama and Clinton among independent voters. Just a month ago Obama maintained a 10 point lead over McCain in this highly coveted group but now trails by 8 points. Most pundits agree that the outcome of the general election could hinge upon which candidate captures the support of independents.

And in another major turnaround, a new USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Clinton has regained her lead over Obama for the first time in almost two months. The survey, taken after the Rev. Wright scandal broke but before Obama's major speech on race this week, has Clinton with a 49%-42% lead over Obama. Just a week ago Obama led 50%-44%. As to the potential impact of Obama's much-heralded speech, Gallup's Jeff Jones said "the initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling."

In the general election, Gallup showed McCain leading Obama 47%-43%. As recently as a week ago Obama held a 50%-44% lead over the Arizona Senator. But the CBS poll had Obama ahead 48%-43%, a drop from his 50%-38% lead last month.

Something else to consider: while Obama's favorable ratings remain largely unchanged at 44%, there's been a significant drop in undecided views to unfavorable views, to 30% from February's 23%. And he's also lost ground with male Democratic voters.

As I've been saying for weeks now, there's a whole lotta time between now and the August convention, and it's abundantly clear that HillaBamaDramaRama will continue, with both candidates swinging in a momentum pendulum. So my point is, no one poll is an indication of anything. Obama could very well sail from here on in, or his campaign could implode. Same for Hillary. But again, as I've also been saying for weeks, this historic contest is far from over.

All things considered, it still appears Obama is the odds-on favorite to snag the nomination, but Democrats would be remiss to ignore the challenges he's facing as indicated by these new polls. For Clinton, she really needs to score a political hat trick in order to grab the prize in August: a big win in Pennsylvania April 22; a lead in the popular vote; and more scandal such as the contentious speeches of Rev. Wright. Well, Pennsylvania has and continues to look very favorably for her, and Obama clearly has been negatively impacted by Wright. The question is, can she somehow pull ahead in the popular vote. If she does, and she remains close in the pledged-delegate count, then she stands a very good shot of convincing the super-delegates to support her...especially if she continues to gain in the polls against a continued drop in support for Obama among independents and males. Her 'electability' narrative could be quite strong at that time, and that could really shake these elite party officials into ultimately coming over to her side.

31 Comments:

  • At 11:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Half of the country absolutely refuses to vote for Hillary Clinton and decided long ago that they would never support her.

    Ostroy, your support of Clinton makes you a divider in the 2008 election.

    - Obama's campaign is based on hope and change

    - McCain has a long track record of reaching across the isle and pissing off conservatives

    Clinton is the only divider in this race.

     
  • At 11:32 AM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Andy, you're quite correct in that the Wright controversy puts Obama's electability in doubt. However, I still believe that Hillary would have a hard time beating McCain herself. I also feel that there's a lifetime between March and November, so there's plenty of time for Obama to make his case and alter the narrative. Sadly, first impressions do matter in politics and the easily manipulated (see 2002 and 2004 elections) masses might have formed a lasting impression of Obama based on the few snippets of extreme ranting by his Pastor. What would have been a lay up, now will be a long hard slog. But, then again, fighting against the forces of ethnic nationalism and attempting to overcome ingnorance or complacency is never an easy endeavor. As Robert Kennedy once said, "[o]nly those who dare fail greatly will ever achieve greatly."

     
  • At 11:37 AM, Blogger 35th 'n Shields said…

    "Not this time"

     
  • At 11:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    it's amazing how people take certain things that the kennedy's have said and use them to their advantage,yet other great things they had to say,they leave out because it's not to their advantage. ON the night that meger everts was shot down in mississippi, JFK made a speech and said,basicly,that if you stand by and watch race crimes and insults being carried out and do nothing. your as guilty as the people doing it,so if you set in a pew 20 years and listen to it,and say nothimg or do nothing about it ,till it's made public,I"M SORRY BUT IF THE SHOE FITS WEAR IT

     
  • At 12:03 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Luckily, Rev. Wright is not guilty of "race crimes" Mr. Anonymous, b/c then Obama would be in real trouble. I suggest you check out A People's History of the United States. If you're patriotism blinds you from the fact that Native Americans and African Americans have been royally screwed over, time and time again, by the United States government, and that breeds resentment and hostility, then you are surely a lost cause. Perhaps you'd be more comfortable reading articles/blog posts by Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Sean Hannity or Bill O'Reilly. The effects of America's history of brutal oppression do not end when the moment the oppression ends. Unfortunately, that legacy takes more than a generation to undo, no matter how much you wish certain minorities "get over it already."

     
  • At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    notice how the great sidney,bi-passes him setting there 20 years listening to the hate speech,he attacks, saying the reverand is not guilty of a hate crime,nobody said a hate crime,but if you set there for 20 years listening to hate and racial speech and do nothing ,your just as guilty

     
  • At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Reid said…

    I think it’s hard to make any judgment about the impact of Obama’s speech in a day or two. It’s too complicated and nuanced. Not everybody has the time to watch such a long thing on YouTube or listen to it analyzed in depth in the newspaper or on TV. But this is a very religious country and people do go to church or Temple and all kinds of places of worship. Of course the speech will provide an occasion for many sermons.

    I think in a few weeks, people are going to have a much fuller awareness of what he had to say.
    But even if they respond to the speech, it doesn’t automatically mean that he will win over any Hillary supporters. So let's see...

     
  • At 2:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Crimes or not, Wright spewed hate against whites and America, and lied about our government's infecting blacks with AIDS. Mamy white people died in NYC way before AIDS was rampant in the black community. And, it spread widely in Africa and is still an epedimic there. Who are all those white folks helping the Africans with their AIDS' medical problems?? And, as most have pointed out, Obama sat there and listened to the hatred against some of the people he would now like to be president too. I never heard a person eventually elected to the presidency voice hatred against any segment of our population. I haven't even mentioned his poor judgment in thinking this would not be an issue.

    The second thing I want to say that no matter how many people are willing to overlook his complicity in the hatred, he cannot win. If you don't believe me, tune in and watch FOXNEWS for twenty minutes. They are not going to let this drop and are at this very moment going through videos of other sermons to keep this going and defeat Obama.

    Hillary will be able to save the day by getting elected on the economy.

     
  • At 3:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Hillary will make the economy worse no matter what state the economy is in if she got the chance. Haven't you ever heard the, "I'm going to take those profits..." speeches? Hillary thinks your money is the government's money and she thinks you don't know how to properly manage your money, so the nanny state will do it for you.

    Only those who truly want a 'benevolent' dictator running America would vote for Hillary.

     
  • At 3:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The United States Government is the Constitution, If we are not always wise enough to elect people to enforce it, then we have to make better choocoes in our elected officials. It is obvious we keep improving or Obama would not be a candidate today, or, Hillary, for that matter. There is a perfect principle of mathematics but people make mistakes when applying it. Stop bashing America. In pinciple it's perfect or at least the best in this world today. That's why so many who now gripe about being oppressed came here. Don't start about the blacks being brought here as slaves. That was a mistake, God knows.

     
  • At 3:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    3:03 At least she likes me.

    And, maybe while she was out being a wicked woman, as some of you like to say, she would get Bill to fix the economy like -- you know -- he did before.

     
  • At 3:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    3:03 At least she likes me.

    And, maybe while she was out being a wicked woman, as some of you like to say, she would get Bill to fix the economy like -- you know -- he did before.

     
  • At 3:11 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    "I never heard a person eventually elected to the presidency voice hatred against any segment of our population." Well, you still haven't. Obama has never said anything or done anything to suggest he hates any segment of our population. He's a proud black politician from Chicago who attended the largest black church in Chicago, where the Pastor did a lifetime of great deeds, but unfortunately said a few really stupid and bitter words. Is this what we elect people based on? Sad sad sad.

    "I haven't even mentioned his poor judgment in thinking this would not be an issue." Who has said that he didn't think it would be an issue? For over a year now, political insiders knew this would come up. I guess you're saying he should never have run for office. But with his political gifts and his vision, and considering we're a nation that elected Bush twice despite his serious issues,(drunk driving arrest, draft dodging, coke snorting, alcoholism, inexperience, lack of intellectual curiosity, lied us into a war, favors the wealthy, etc..)Obama dared to take the chance that the American people were prepared to move from politicians who see the world in Manichean terms to those who are capable of seeing the complexity of a given situation, and deal with it accordingly.

     
  • At 3:15 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    And for anyone who thinks that any President, Obama or Clinton or McCain, can wave a magic wand and singlehandedly fix something as complex as the economy, with its millions of moving parts, well you are sadly mistaken. A president can make a given economic situation worse or better, but cannot on his/her own "fix" the economy.

     
  • At 7:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    3:03 said, "...we have to make better choocoes..."

    I've never made choocoes before, what's the recipe?

     
  • At 9:18 PM, Anonymous alamo said…

    First, lets all remember that this election or nominating season is unusual for several reasons.
    1) A young black charismatic candidate. The first time in our history with a real chance of winning the nomination of a major party and the presidency
    2) A gifted energetic experienced and charismatic woman candidate. Also the first time in our history with a real chance of winning the nomination of a major party and the presidency.
    and--and it's a big "and"
    3) A Republican Administration that has been far and away, the absolute WORST in my lifetime spanning 12 administrations--if I live through this festering debacle.The most recent presidential popularity poll I've
    seen placed Bush's favorable rating at 19 per cent. (Most knowledgeable political minds believe that figure is skewered in favor of Bush as some Americans act on a personal principle of never criticizing "their President")But whatever the case is, George W Bush and Richard Cheney are thought of less than spit its safe to say. What kind of intellect could like those despicable, cowardly, lying, theiving, murdering bastards?

    When Spiro Agnew slithered out of office in a plea arrangement that enabled him to stay out of prison and his boss, Richard Nixon later slimed his way out of office ahead of certain impeachment, I and 218 million fellow Americans breathed a sigh of national relief. That sigh was based on what we all thought was the lowest point this country could ever sink to. How wrong we all were then. As unbelievable as it seems, Bush and Cheney make us wish for "the good old days" of "Tricky Dick" and his unscrupulous henchmen.

    We have reached the bottom today.

    Anything worse than Bush and Cheney will destroy this country. More of the same in the form of a John McCain could very well do the same. We must do better if we plan on continuing as the America we all want to be. Literally everything Bush/Cheney have touched over the past 7 plus years has been a complete and unmitigated disaster.

    The rage that the people are feeling translates into much of the excitement, the enthusiasm and the unrivaled voter turn out we are seeing. Let's do all we can to keep it going. Keep asking these simple questions: "Are you better off today than you were in 2000"? And also,"Is the nation better off today than it was in 2000"? (We can thank Ronald Reagan and his talking heads for those queries)Their pertinence though is without question

    Give 'em hell Democrats! I can live with Clinton/Obama (preferably) or Obama/Clinton, but either way, America needs to get it right (by going "left") in 2008.

     
  • At 11:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Tonight on Fox Greta Van Susteren, trying to win a verbal battle with Sharpton, played a rather lengthy portion of the sermon before Rev. Wright got to the "God damn America" part. I truly see now what Wright's defenders meant when they said you have to see it in context; and, some ministers said that the Old Testament has passages that demand that holy people condemn rulers and governments. At any rate, before the damnation part, Wright denounces what women have suffered in this country since its inception, as well as the threat now of women's rights over her body being taken away again. Then he damned the government for treating women that way -- he didn't say black women -- but all women. Perhaps we should demand to hear all the clips in context. I am willing now to forgive Obama for his loyalty because I see where I could have misjudged. I do not damn America by any means. America is not George Bush or any one person or political group. But I can understand Wright if the "biblical explanation for his curse is correct. And, I cannotdeny he is a chamption for the rifhts of allwomen.

     
  • At 9:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I find it deplorable that only two people in this campaign have mentioned sexism and what women endure in this country. The two are Wright in the clips of his old sermon, and Ferarro. And, I'm outraged that Richardson is endorsing Obama, who hasn't got a chance of winning after his gaffes and poor judgment. Has Obama promised Richardson a nifty position. I think probably so. And, how dare the supporters of Obama suggest, ever so slyly that the passport snoop is from the Clinton camgaign. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing weren't instigated by Obama to "get" Hillary. I am totally disgusted with the Democratic Pary, including Dean. Is no one outraged that Obama didn't support the redo and instead disenfranchised so many Democrats. He's your run-of-the-mill politician. And, I also need to say that I remember my grandmother in "those days" and she was not the "typical white woman" Obama describes.

     
  • At 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I'm disgusted with the Democrats too. I'm a registered Democrat but will be supporting the moderate John McCain.

    9:31 am,
    Why would Richardson's opinion (endorsement) disgust you? I believe every American has a right to endorse whomever they want. You don't for some reason, which vexes me. Are you not for freedom of opinion?

     
  • At 10:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    10:11 To point out the obvious: I, too,as an American have the right to be disgusted by the endorsement. I'm disgusted because it is stupid -- The Hispanics who are supporting Hillary will now be as racist as the blacks and rally around Obama. Why is that disgusting? BECAUSE HE CANNOT WIN. RICHARDSON IS THROWING IT TO MC CAIN. YOU YOURSELF SAID YOU ARE DISGUSTED WITH THE DEMS AND ARE VOTING FOR MC CAIN.

    I am going to register as an Independent too. The Democratic Party has the mentally challenged running it.

     
  • At 10:35 AM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    I really cannot believe that people are so quick to write Obama off now, especially as there's no evidence that Obama has said or done anything racist. Do we not recall the myriad scandals Bush was plagued by in 2000? (drunk driving, cocaine, alcoholic, going AWOL) Do we not recall the myriad scandals that beset Clinton in '92? A young John Kerry had testified before the Senate regarding war crimes that he had never witnessed and hadnt verified? Many conservates and vets saw him as un-American. This Rev. Wright thing is a bullshit distraction from the very real issues this country is facing: a sliding dollar, an incredible budget deficit, home foreclosures, 47 million without health care, bringing an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, ensuring that we don't start yet another war with Iran, solving our energy problem in light of fact that we've probably already hit peak oil, investing in our country's decaying infrastructure, making college education more affordable, as well as improving science and math education in k-12. Senator McCain will not adequately address all of these problems, while he most certainly will take our nation to war with Iran. Senator Obama will bring his vast political skills to bear on these vexing and critical problems. This Rev. Wright "scandal" is just another "blowjob impeachment" or "gay marriage amendment" meant to distract the public from the fact that Republicans cannot govern effectively, that their policies are anethema to our republic's viability. The choice is simple.

     
  • At 10:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    sidney,senator Obama will not address all the so call problems you speak of,this is the man that voted present in the ind. senate 150 plus times,rather than take a stand.I would rather have someone take a stand they think is right,rather than see which way the winds blow first. Mr. obama says he would of voted against the war,how can we be sure,because he say's so,this is a man that listened to hate speech for 20 odd years and never condemed them intill they were made public,threw his grandmother under the bus as if she was a white bigot,as if to justify reverand wright,it's god dammed,and I do mean god dammed hard to wrap your arms aroung this man ,let alone vote for him

     
  • At 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I heard a remark by Richardson that just stopped the flow of blood from my Liberal BLeeding Heart. Richardson said he is endorsing Obama because he doesn't like the way immigrants are treated in this country. They get free medical care, free educations, welfare, and pay no taxes. They also are allowed to live here illrgally, pay no taxes, steal citizens' IDs; go to college free in some states; bring drugs into the US; and demand that others speak Spanish to them; and they gather in droves pupblicly to demand their rights. Plus, I actually heard on PBS that Mexican children come over the border each morning to get a good edcuation in America. They don't even bother to immigrate. But that's not good enough for Richardson, who himeself has done rather well in this country. I've really really had it with the loonies inthe Democratic Party. I'm going to join the growing number of others and become an Independnet and vote for John McCain.

     
  • At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    It seems every group that has a gripe about being denied rights has become very vocal about discrimination except women. No one is even speaking out for them or mentioning the obstacles of gender Hillary faces. You would think since spousal abuse is the biggest crime in the country and that a huge number of women are abandoned to raise children alone, not to mention the famous "glass cieling" that someone would at least whisper an objection without being accused of "bitching."

     
  • At 12:36 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    Hey, Anon at 12:10pm,

    You do realize that McCain is 100% with the Democrats on immigration right? The co-sponsor of the amnesty bill along with senator Kennedy. If you're voting based on immigration, I'm sad to say that you're not really being offered a choice. McCain is no different than a Democrat on that score. You might want to check up on it before voting for a man that will take this country to war with Iran and extend tax cuts for the uber-rich while this nation's economy burns...

     
  • At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I know McCain says he's where the Democrats say they are on immigration. I'm voting for him counting on his flip flopping on that as he's done on so many other issues. Yes, I'm placing my hope on the negative qualities of John McCain because I'm sick of the white racism from the Democrats. I was always on the side of the oppressed. Now I feel oppressed.

     
  • At 3:33 PM, Blogger Sidney Condorcet said…

    3:18pm is a troll....He/she had me going for a minute, but then mentioned being "sick of the white racism" as if such a thing has existed in this campaign (and of course he/she blames all the Democrats for it, and not just Rev. Wright, and Obama by association), puts his/her hope on McCain flip-flopping, and then says "[n]ow I feel oppressed." Get a life, McDouche...

     
  • At 4:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Reverend Rod Parsley of the World Harvest Church of Columbus, Ohio -- whom Sen. John McCain hails as a spiritual adviser -- has suggested on several occasions that the U.S. government was complicit in facilitating black genocide.

    In speeches that have gone largely unnoticed, Parsley (who is white) compares Planned Parenthood, the reproductive care and family planning group, to the Klu Klux Klan and Nazis, and describes the American government as enablers of murder for supporting the organization.

    "If I were to call for the sterilization or the elimination of an entire segment of society, I'd be labeled a racists or a murderer, or at very best a Nazi," says Parsley. "That every single year, millions of our tax dollars are funding a national organization built upon that very goal -- their target: African Americans. That's right, the death toll: nearly fifteen hundred African Americans a day. The shocking truth of black genocide."

     
  • At 9:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Why, Sidney -- Hats off to the 'lil ole troll who got you to drop your fragile intellectual and genteel persona to show your immature vulgar essence and thinking. Thank you. That will now be the frame of reference for your future frequent entries.

     
  • At 11:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    4:30 PM,
    McCain may have hailed Parsley as A spiritual adviser, but Wright is Obama's spiritual adviser and has been for 20 years. You do understand the difference, don't you?

    Parsley is not and has never been McCain's spiritual adviser.

     
  • At 12:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Im quite sure that people we all associate with say things that we dont agree with are respect at all, but that is also the the freedom we have as americans. If we think back it was only a few short years ago when hate crimes were done against blacks all the time and dont get me started on the stomach churning comments blacks had to endure every
    day just for being black. Im sorry, but the little remarks made by this guy is nothing compared to what he probaly had to go through, so get over it. Lets not judge Obama on someone elses views, comments, and opinions, but lets judge him according to his works and and comments. I know one thing I talk to people who say many things that I dont agree with, and I for sure dont want to be judged according to someone elses comments, feelings, or views.

     

Post a Comment

<< Home