Wednesday, March 26, 2008
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday evening strongly indicates that the 2008 Democratic presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing much of whatever steam it's been managing to previously hold onto. Conversely, Sen. Barack Obama, in the wake of the Rev Jeremiah Wright and Bosnia controversies, has managed to gain appreciable momentum. HillaBamaDramaRama continues.
The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and compares the results from March 12th. Below are the poll's key findings.
-Negatives: Clinton has jumped to 48% from 43%. Her negative rating is now bigger than her positive (37%). By contrast, Obama's negative rating sits at 32% against his 49% positive. He was previously at 51% positive/28% negative
-Obama vs McCain: Obama up 44%-42%, from 47%-44%.
-Clinton vs McCain: McCain has pulled ahead 46%-44%. Clinton previously had held a 47%-45% over the Arizona Senator.
-Obama vs Clinton: 45%-45%. This is significant, since Obama has come even for the first time. Clinton had held a 47%-43% lead.
-White Democrats: Clinton leads 49%-41%, down from 51% to 39%.
-Blacks: 51% have positive views of Clinton, down from 63%
-Women: Clinton dropped to 44%-42%, from 51%. This is significant, as women have previously been a major part of Clinton's core constituency. If she continues to lose women, she's history.
-Overall values: 52% said Clinton doesn't have the background or values they identify with, against 50% who say Obama does (but 57% said that the GOP's presumptive nominee John McCain does).
But most disturbing is that 20% of both candidates supporters said they will defect to McCain if the other candidate wins. This is truly incredible, and quite frankly, suicidal. This sort of angry revenge-voting will be disastrous for the party come November. (I will write more on this Thursday).
While I have been calling for the campaign to run its natural course till the end, it's becoming clear that for Clinton, the pressure is intensifying. Though she vowed on Wednesday to remain in the race for three more months, she must have a very strong showing in Pennsylvania April 22nd, and her polling must stabilize, or she will be likely exit then.
On another note, we could use your help at The The Adrienne Shelly Foundation. We are a tax-exempt, non-profit organization dedicated in my wife's honor to help carry out her spirit and passion, with the goal of assisting women filmmakers. Adrienne was brutally killed in NYC on November 1, 2006. Through the Foundation, her commitment to filmmaking lives on. We've established scholarships, grants, finishing funds and living stipends at NYU's Tisch School of the Arts/Kanbar Institute of Film; Columbia University; American Film Institute; Women in Film; the Independent Feature Project; the Nantucket Film Festival; and the Sundance Institute. We're very pleased to announce that one of last year's grant recipients, Cynthia Wade, just won an Oscar for Best Documentary Short Subject for "Freeheld." We are proud of Cynthia and to have supported this film. Your generous contribution will go a long way towards helping us continue to achieve our very important mission.