Monday, March 24, 2008

Obama Surges in New Poll. It's Hard to Argue his Inevitability

After a long, difficult week in Democratic politics, it would appear that Sen. Barack Obama's momentum is back on track following his universally lauded speech on race and his endorsement by New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. According to Gallup's daily tracking poll, Obama regained his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton by 48% to 45%over the weekend. The week before, after the Rev. Wright scandal broke but before Obama's speech, Clinton pulled ahead with a 49%-42% lead...her first lead in about 7 weeks. The week before, Obama led 50%-44%. What a roller-coaster.

But kudos to the junior Senator from Illinois. He addressed the Rev. Wright controversy head-on, and it worked. It's another painful reminder of what Sen. John Kerry didn't do in 2004. Maybe if he had been as honest and forthright, he'd be sitting in the White House right now instead of the reckless cowboy we've been saddled with (pun intended).

While I've been saying, and still believe, that it ain't over until it's over, and that the race, and Hillary's quest for the presidency, should be allowed to continue without the divisive bickering back and forth between warring Democrats, it's becoming harder and harder to fathom just how Clinton can pull off a win without some major new Obama scandal surfacing. But I'm not ready yet to call for her exit, which is a bit premature. We need to see the outcome of the April 22nd Pennsylvania (188 delegates) primary and May 6th contests in Indiana (84) and North Carolina (134) before calls for Clinton to quit become truly reasonable and justified. If the facts on the ground at that time point to a clear Obama path to victory, her exit at that time would give Obama over three months before the convention to begin his campaign against the presumptive GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain.

To be sure, should Hillary quit the race in May and throw her full support behind Obama, as her supporters are assured to do, we would have party unity against the Repugs six months before the general election. Let's give both candidates, and the process, time to evolve naturally. It's much better for the party that way.

On another note, we could use your help at The The Adrienne Shelly Foundation. We are a tax-exempt, non-profit organization dedicated in my wife's honor to help carry out her spirit and passion, with the goal of assisting women filmmakers. Adrienne was brutally killed in NYC on November 1, 2006. Through the Foundation, her commitment to filmmaking lives on. We've established scholarships, grants, finishing funds and living stipends at NYU's Tisch School of the Arts/Kanbar Institute of Film; Columbia University; American Film Institute; Women in Film; the Independent Feature Project; the Nantucket Film Festival; and the Sundance Institute. We're very pleased to announce that one of last year's grant recipients, Cynthia Wade, just won an Oscar for Best Documentary Short Subject for "Freeheld." We are proud of Cynthia and to have supported this film. Your generous contribution will go a long way towards helping us continue to achieve our very important mission.
Thank you.


Sidney Condorcet said...

I know I said I'd quit my posting until there was a nominee, however, I will follow the example of that paragon of steadfastness, Hillary Clinton, and will refuse to apologize for my conduct (as Hillary has refused to do vis-a-vis her vote to authorize the Iraq War).

I applaud Andy for the almost daring naivete he displays with this common refrain of his:
"...and that the race, and Hillary's quest for the presidency, should be allowed to continue without the divisive bickering back and forth between warring Democrats..."

This divisive bickering, which you claim to deplore, is a natural product of Hillary's willingness to stumble on in the face of countervailing reality, Andy. Surely you know this. This is why Obama supporters generally think that Clinton is being selfish because her only path to victory, as neutral journalists and political operatives have opined, involves tearing Obama down by any means imaginable. Her and Bill's repeated praising of McCain, and the implication that the likely Democratic nominee isn't even in McCain's league, prompts another round of divisive bickering. The "vetting" of Obama by Clinton is a part of this "partisan bickering," and usually begs an in-kind response from the Obama campaign.

You decry this bickering, yet you seem to have no issue with this going all the way to the floor of the convention. If it hasn't dawned on you that a floor fight would result in the most extreme form of sectarian warfare, then you'd be best served by reading a chronicle of the 1980 Democratic race, where Kennedy's floor fight against Carter, who had more delegates, helped contribute to a Reagan victory. You and your candidate cannot have it both ways, Andy. It's next to impossible for her to win. But as you point out, it is her right to go forward and carry on until the convention. However, as Lincoln once said "a house divided against itself cannot stand." Around a month ago, supporters of Obama and supporters of Clinton largely still liked the other candidate. As the campaign goes on, and as attacks grow more desperate and base, that phenomenom has slowly been eclipsed by a feeling of antagonism and wounded feelings. I still believe that we can be reconciled, but if this goes through June, there is a good chance that the "divisive bickering" will reach a disastrous octave, and we will be forced to confront a fractured party and a McCain victory.

Anonymous said...

Obamas people cannot let the primary continue,with fox news spewing their brand of news for Obama for the next 4 to 5 weeks clinton will climb in the polls,even though they hate clinton as much.And cnn and msnbc are not going to stand by and let fox attack by it's self. If the polls would only show one or the other with a 60 to 65 % of the reg.dem vote then the other should drop. thats not going to happen,OBAMA people use the fact that obama hasn't been in wshington long enough to get stained,the only problem with that is little george wasn't a washington groupie either

Sidney Condorcet said...

My apologies to Andy. I re-read your post and you clearly do not wish to see this go to the Convention floor. Sorry for my error. However, I know that some Clinton supporters (I'd imagine Carolyn would be among them) would have no compunction regarding a floor fight, so I still stand by my argument.

Anonymous said...

typical,sidney,clinton needs to fall on her sword,so the gifted one can be proclaimed the savoir of america,at that time the monster hillary must,I repeat must get on her knees and beg obama's forgiveness,she should also give him whatever money her campain has raised, she and her husband should then go out and proclaim their ever dying devotion to him

Sidney Condorcet said...


I never said anything of the sort. But in politics and in sport, some people win and some people lose. As Andy said, barring some bigger than Rev. Wright revelation, Obama is the winner and Senator Clinton is the loser. Please save your histrionics for your much anticipated dinner theatre premier.

Anonymous said...

Sideny is a flip flopper like Obama. First Obama was above race and now he's created a divide that cannot be fixed. I will stay home rather than vote for him and I'll register as an Independent soon after.
Sidney, rave on if you will, I and my friends no longer read your comments, not that you care.

Anonymous said...

I have almost given up on reading,listening, or considering the comments of anyone but, oddly enough, Pat Buchanan. We all know he's not a Democrat but consistenly he is the only one who has commented on this very long campaign with intelligence, fairness, and without politicall bias. This morning on Morning Joe he said that Obama cannot win if he's the Democratic candidate; and, he also said Hillary can still win, especially if her showing in PA is impressive.

What's happened to you Ostroy? Get a call from Richardson?

Sidney Condorcet said...

Well, Pat Buchanan helped devise Nixon's "southern strategy", so I wouldn't be surprised that his view is that a black man cannot win in the United States. Buchanan also has written that World War II was an unnecessary war. Buchanan is anti-black, anti-jew, anti-women and anti-gay. He sanctions religious prayer in public views and endorses intelligent design. In Right from the Beginning, Buchanan wrote: "The real liberators of American women were not the feminist noise-makers; they were the automobile, the supermarket, the shopping center, the dishwasher, the washer-dryer, the freezer." In a 1977 column, Buchanan said that despite Hitler's anti-Semitic and genocidal tendencies, he was "an individual of great courage.." Clearly he's the very embodiment of "fairness" and has no identifiable political bias.

Anonymous said...

How I wish Obama were here instead in the Vifgin Islands so he could comment on the charge by the Detroit mayor that the charge of perjury against him is a "lynching campaign." That sounds like a racist remark to me. We need to be united.

Anonymous said...

ostroy, Im for Obama and glad to see your being objective here. personally, I think youve have been pretty even all along. not sure what the fuss has been. I think your being very fair to both sides

Anonymous said...

the only good thing that has come out of the primary sofar is the democrates have done so much damage to each others campians(CLINTON AND OBAMA) that not only will they lose in 08 with obama,but by tearing up clinton so bad she can't run in 012.All this obama people can say how clinton can't win,but hate to be the one pissing on your parade but Obama is unelectable more so, if you think his racist preacher problem is over,think again. And then you have a little thing called the willie horton syndrom,which puts california,new york,ohio,texas florida,michigan and penn. not to mention other normally blue states in play.And just think the repuks didn't have to bring the race card into the race,Obama and his people did to play the clintons as racist,all the repuks need to do is remind the rest of america,how obama got 90% of the vote of the african-american community after all her political life (CLINTON) fighting for the african american community,and then turning on her and BINGO the willie horton effect

Anonymous said...

3:28 is absolutely right about this. Obama cannot win. Just thinking it through should make it obvious to every Democrat. But Gore, Kerry, Pelosi, Kennedy, and the other so-called "leaders" (if not "brains") of the Dmocratic Party will continue their support and then as super delegates will vote for Obama, if it comes to that, and McCain will be president, the war will continue, public schools will cave to the voucher program, social security will be crippled, more jobs will go overseas, the supreme court will be fixed to overturn roe v. wade and take back a lot of our liberties -- the list is longer of course, but everybody in America knows what will happen. It's just that fifty percent look forward to it. And, I will say, that the blacks as well whites will suffer more poverty and decline.

Anonymous said...

The media will not even mention the Peter F. Paul vs. Clinton $17 million dollar Fraud trial. Presently, California Superior Court judge Aurelio N. Munoz and lawyers for Peter Paul are seeking 'sworn testimonies' from all three Clintons, top Democratic officials and Terry McAuliffe of the Clinton campaign.

A hearing is scheduled in Los Angeles, CA on April 25, 2008 with a trial scheduled for October.

Why would Democrats support Hillary when she is scheduled for a fraud trial during the election?

Anonymous said...

Hillary Clinton has every right to continue to fight for the nomination.

Any democrat who believes that McCain is preferable to either Obama or Clinton is crazy. I will proudly vote for the democratic nominee in November and I won't have any qualms about it.

Pat Buchanan is a nut who helps Obama with his insane rantings. I will never forget his fear mongering speech at the republican convention. He is an angry, unbalanced man.

Gayle Ruffin

Anonymous said...

democrates are caught between a rock and a hard spot as the old saying goes.they let jessie jackson ,al sharpton and other black leaders decided no-matter what this was the year to run a black man for president.distroy any "honkie"in their path,use race anything as long as a black man still stands in the end. And to win the presidency they will claim that if you don't vote for him YOUR A RACIST.What is going too happen in this great nation when he doesn't win and the african- americans riot,because that is what your setting yourselfs up for.But the good thing is they usually burn their own neighborhoods down

Anonymous said...

On a totally different note, I want to say that I happened upon this site, was drawn to the Adrienne Shelly Foundation information and clicked through to the site. As someone living in the UK, I had not heard of her, of her brilliant accomplishments and the appalling way she was taken from this life. Of course, politics etc are important, and within everything the beauty of human heart and creativity is so precious. I send you deepest respects in the huge challenge that was visited upon you and your daughter in your loss.

Anonymous said...

In the beginning when I was for Obama, I was so afraid for his safety and was relieved when he got extra security.

Now my fears are more wide-spread.

I learned yesterday on TV from Geraldine Ferarro that she and her staff have received death threats because of her recent remarks. THese were not threats from nuts, but from Obama supporters who had done their research and threatened every organization and its staff, she is associated with. She was obviously shaken but said she will not apologize or deny her comments.

I had already heard from several super delegates on TV that delagates are being threatened to vote for Obama, or else.

That could mean that if Obama is president, perhaps he and surely Congress will be in constant fear from threats to vote as this volitile group wishes.

It could be a reign of terror and despotism.

At the least I'd like some assurance from somebody that my fears are not valid.

Anonymous said...

"...These were not threats from nuts, but from Obama supporters..."

You first mistake is assuming Obama supporters are not nuts.

You next mistake is looking for logic in the Democrat party. The DNC is the party of hypocrisy.

- Everybody has a 'right to vote'? Ask Dean the Screamer if MI and FL have a right to vote. BTW, there is absolutely no 'right to vote' in the constitution.

- Support Alternative Energy. Ask Kennedy about the Wind Farms he blocking in MA because it will affect his view. Ask Texas Environments who are currently blocking wind farms because 'they kill birds'

- Want to clean up Washington corruption? Why the f*ck are half of you supporting a lying, corrupt Clinton? Here's more proof that she lied about her *cough*experience*cough*.

- Do you care about the economy? Why would you support Democrats who want to increase taxes to punish the job creators in this country?

- Care about Social Security? The Democrats blocked SS reform.

- Care about protecting precious life? Millions of innocent babies are murdered before birth, thanks to Democrats. Over 90% of these murders are for convenience - NOT for saving the life of the mother.

- Want to stop racism? The Democrats support Affirmative Action which REQUIRES the categorization of people by skin color. People should be employeed based on their job skills, not their skin color.

- Think Obama is a uniter with rational decision making skills? Ask the Hate Preacher about whites, then ask Obama why he attended Hate Mass for 20 years.

- Think Hillary was "dodging sniper fire in Bosnia"? She just admitted today that she "mispoke".... *cough*lied*cough*.

- Think Hillary can run the country? She can't even run her family...or her campaign.

The list goes on and on....

Anonymous said...

9:38 Your list is meaningless in the light of the truth we face which is the disaster the Bush/Cheney administration has been for Anerica and its citizens, if not the entire world. All your remmarks are "hot air."

Now, the problem is to get the right Dem in. I agree with the contributor who states that the threats of harm from the Obama camp are frightening.

And, that therefore, leaves Hillary as our only choice, unless she gets threats to drop out. However, I don't think she can be frightened off.

Anonymous said...

Are the threats true,which for some reason,they are not being reported on CNN or MSNBC. If they are that shows how far the 24 hour news stations are going to take Obama's side on everything,this is a former vice-president canidate and they could care less.It shows that they spoon feed the public what ever they want.If the facts are true,how can anyone blame clinton supporters voting for MCCAIN in the end ANDY.......

Anonymous said...

I, too, saw Feraarro and it was on FOX NEWS, not MSNBC or CNN. Of course we know why FOX featured it but it showed Ferarro in person and we could watch and hear her comments -- they were not 'quotes' up on a screen, so it is true. I can't undestand CNN's and MSNBC's investment in OBama as President.

Iwant more information about the Black Liberation Theology. Is it a nationwide movement? What would it mean if our President were a member of such a group? The new preacher of Trinity said he comes with a sword. What does all of this mean? We need more information from CNN, MSNBC, FOX, The NY TIMES and all the media. Ignorance is dangerous.