The Ostroy Report

The Ostroy Report is a fresh, aggressive voice for Democrats and a watchdog of the GOP/Tea Party. We support President Obama and the Democratic agenda and seek to preserve the Senate majority while taking back the House. But we're also not afraid to criticize the left when necessary.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Democrats Pull Ahead of Republicans in Major Senate Races. National Polling Shows Voters Ready for Change


There's less than 100 days until the November midterm elections, and the Democrats, who need six seats to regain control of the Senate, are beginning to sense that victory could be right around the corner. New polls show that Democratic challengers in several key states have pulled ahead of their Republican opponents in what could foreshadow the sort of voter backlash not seen since New Gingrich and the Republican Revolution swept the GOP into power in 1994.

Here's how it looks in several hotly contested races: According to Rasmussen, in Missouri, Claire McCaskill now leads Sen. Jim Talent 45%-42%. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Mike DeWine 44%-42%. In Tennessee's race for the retiring Bill Frist's seat, Zogby has Democrat Harold Ford Jr. leading Bob Corker 43.6% to 42.5%. Rhode Island's Sen. Lincoln Chafee has fallen behind Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse 46%-41%. In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey Jr. continues to hold a solid double-digit lead over Sen. Rick Santorum. In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns trails Jon Tester 50%-43%. And what was once in Washington looking like a vulnerable Democratic seat, Sen. Maria Cantwell now holds a commanding 11-point lead over Mike McGavick, 48% - 37%. Additionally, poll numbers have dropped appreciably for Senate Republicans Jon Kyl (AZ) George Allen (VA), who are facing tougher challenges than anyone expected six months ago.

On the national front, voters are continuing to voice strong opposition to the current GOP leadership:

-Democrats lead Republicans by a 10-point margin in two different polls: A NBC/WSJ survey has Dems leading 48-38 for Congress and a CBS/NY Times poll has Dems leading 45-35.
-In a CBS/NY Times poll, 33% say their vote will be a vote against Bush and 51% of voters have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.
-In the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, 60% disapprove of the GOP-led Congress.
-Democrats are trusted to make the right decisions about the Iraq war by a 6-point margin and on the economy by a 12-point margin in the CBS/New York Times poll.

When you factor in this polling trend, combined with President Bush's abysmal approval ratings, the Iraq war, the crisis in the Middle East, astronomical gas prices, record deficits, a struggling economy and a sagging housing market, the stage is indeed set for a Democratic House and Senate victory this Fall.

32 Comments:

  • At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Cathy said…

    The one thing that we must remember is that the Repubs will do anything and I mean anything to stay in power. Even though they have claimed that they are the party picked by God, they will cheat, lie, steal and intimidate voters to keep power. We are in for a fight to save our once great country.

    This is from the real Cathy from Michigan, a proud Democrat no matter what any other poster says.

     
  • At 12:55 PM, Anonymous johnny said…

    The fact still remains that unless we get those voting machines fixed to give a paper trail all bets are off. All we have to do is remember back to 2004 and the polls showing Kerry winning and bammo Bush wins again.

    Cathy you are a true blue Democrat and always good to read your take on things.

     
  • At 1:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    By and large, the Dems have had the worst luck with their campaign leadership. The Reps have had a much more coordinated approach, at least by appearance, which has helped them tremendously in the past.

    I have watched too many "close" races go by the wayside due to poor campaign management. Let's hope the Dems can hold it together until November!

     
  • At 1:31 PM, Anonymous Cathy said…

    And let's hope that even if Bush trots out an Osama tape, the American voter won't be scared to vote the Repubs in again.


    Thanks Johnny!

    Cathy
    I'm from Michigan and I point that out because the so called economic recovery has never reached us.

     
  • At 2:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Whats Cathy so proud of about the Democratic party? Maybe its because they have lived high on the hog taking in Donations Blood Money for alife timeand doing nothing.Like when Gore and Kerry won the election,they threw up their hands,Took their donations and run instead of proving it was a fixed election which would of stopped it.no their money mounted more to them than the country did.
    Or maybe Its the proud fact that they havent got the guts to impeach bush nomatter what he does because the DEM. senators are afraid their corruption will hit the fan. Maybe shes proud of Joe leaverman{a traitor, then Bill Clinton going on tv and telling what a good man Leaverman is,Bill will do anything for a dollar.including helping bush on anything he wants.Maybe shes proud that they were so dumb and signed Bushes going to war,Then complain about it at the same time appropriate money to keep it agoing.{more traitors}Maybe its Hillarys 6,000 hairdo for her photo-op
    If you write Hillary or leaverman after about 30 days theyll write you back and tell you they only half to answer to the people of New York and Massachusetts.So i figure let the people of NY put them in office.
    What we need is neither party and all the politicans run for their gravey jobs on their own money
    Thank you
    Fred

     
  • At 2:25 PM, Anonymous Roger J said…

    Yes, the polls are showing some promise for a Democrat victory,,However,this could all be for naught, should Howard Dean start running off the mouth, before election day. Let's hope not

     
  • At 3:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The Democrats are more gung-ho for Israel's war. This war will not stop. It's all part of a larger plan. As Israel bombs her neighbors, the US erodes rights at home by detaining protestors, stealing private lands, pressuring Amazon to drop the book "America Deceived" by E.A. Blayre III and illegally wire-tapping phones. Soon, the US army will invade Iran (with the consent of Neo-cons, Democrats and Israel), and the entire Middle East will turn to chaos. Add in another false-flag attack on US soil (like 9/11) and the public will beg for the "safety" of One World Gov't.
    Final link (before Google Books is pressured to drop the title):
    America Deceived - Book

     
  • At 7:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    let us not screw the pooch this time

     
  • At 7:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    For for the life of me why people cant figure this Israel war out for what it is,Bush gives Iseral money and furnishes the bombs,they do the fighting,soon they be fighting with Iran and he steps in.
    Mission accomplished he got war with Iran and dont need his bought off congress,He just proved he dont need the supreme court judges,forhis tourture coverup.his detainees cant even go to their own trial,let alone voice their side of it.now its laughable they polled and got 10% lead and dont think Bush will do this election like in 2000 and 2004.
    They got 10% lead and 3 years ago had over 65% wanted Bush Impeached and havent done nothing yet.He knows hes got them wrapped around his little finger.and the dummies are not going to do nothing ,their out foxed.The only way their going to get any ware with Bush is get him out of there by arresting him and try him on war crimes.

     
  • At 8:31 PM, Anonymous Liberty is the root of liberal said…

    Damn, do I hate when good liberals give bad info. Really gives me heartburn. Remember, while we can't be 100% right all the time, we can't be sloppy and win over the good and formerly duped by propaganda citizens of this country. Senator Burns was behind in the polls to Jon Tester by 7 points last I knew (July 11). And please note that Jon Tester beat John Morrison in the democratic Democratic primary (little d spelling intentional).

    So please, Andy, get yer facts straight. This is an important race in a state that proudly claims one of america's most noble past senators as its own: Mike Mansfield. He was a true statesman and gentleman and a great speaker.

    Andy, I really think you owe an apology and a correction to all for being so sloppy in your presentation, or we'll yank yer friggin blogger link. Sheesh.

     
  • At 9:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    7:15PM Anonymous. I for one know think everything you say is true. Thanks for saying it publicly.

     
  • At 9:22 PM, Blogger Progressaurus Rex said…

    here, here, liberty!
    tester beat morrison in the dem primary, and leads burns by as much as 7 points in a recent rasmussen poll.

    please update this information, andy!

     
  • At 9:23 PM, Anonymous Mario said…

    Please help me decide

    I just came across your blog and it looks like progressive – although I am not so sure after reading all that pro-Israel stuff… I can understand the excitement of leading the Republicans in the polls. Anyhow, I have basic questions and I would appreciate it receiving feedbacks that may help me decide whether I should vote for the Democratic party or elect not to vote at all (sorry for my convoluted English but it is not my mother language - this is also my first election in the US as I just received citizenship). This is my conundrum. I am progressive, caring, socially oriented, I side with the underdog and I like to give more to the poor than the rich. I believe that discriminations and oppressions bring hatred and I would rather avoid that. I would rather have less if this would help toward more social equity. I have been against the Iraq war from day one, I believe that Bush took advantage of 9/11 and deceived the American public to pursue his neo-con war domination agenda. I believe it’s a shame that the US, the richest country in the world does not provide universal health care for its citizens; like in Europe (even Iraq I believe had free health care before the war – although I am not so sure about that). Oh, and I don’t believe that terrorists attacked us because they hate our freedom as the village idiot keeps saying. As Osama Bin Laden said, why they did attack the US and not – say – Sweden? Now, if I look at the positions the Democratic Party has been taking on these issues, quite honestly, I don’t feel I would be represented properly. On Iraq, first they gave mandate to the village idiot to wage a war of aggression based on shaky – to say the least – premises; then the only follow on criticism has been from the right, not doing the “job” properly (more troops, better equipment, better planning, etc.); on social equity, I don’t see much of an effort there to oppose the dismantlement of the minimum welfare state left and not to make the riches richer; on universal health care, yes some talks here and there but then, it would cost too much, we could not afford it, etc.; how come that it is affordable in Europe and not here? Bah! Finally, on 9/11 and the open-ended “war on terror”. Why not to analyze the root causes of terrorism and cope with them? See, bottom line this is what I keep asking to myself: what are the substantial differences between the Republican and the Democratic Parties, if any? Please, help me find it. Thanks

     
  • At 10:03 PM, Blogger The Ostroy Report said…

    Hey gang, go easy on me! I stand corrected on Tester and Burns. Been a long day. Think this stuff is easy??!!

    Thanks for the catch...and as always, thanks for readin' and writin'....
    Andy

     
  • At 10:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Mario -- Welcome!We need more citizens who think as you do. Glad you've joined us

     
  • At 11:06 PM, Blogger Progressaurus Rex said…

    nice one, andy.

    mario, i feel very much the same as you do. the way i'm looking at it right now, though, is that the republicans are completely useless and we are in a fight for the immediate future of the country. there's no way we can stand idly by and allow this railroading of the radical right's agenda down our throats for the next 2 years.

    remember, it only took a 2 point victory in 2004 for bush to declare that he had a "mandate". they won't acknowledge that a close election is a indication that public opinion is sharply divided, and they should govern accordingly -- they use it as yet another opportunity to enforce their radical ideology. every time these guys win, they feel like their warped concept of governance has been validated.

    i've only voted for a democrat once in my life, but you can be damn certain that in november i'll be voting a straight democrat ticket. america, and the world, can't afford 2 more years of bush acting like eric cartman and congress acting like cartman's mother. he's a spoiled, unsupervised child, and if those that are supposed to be minding him won't do it, we need to send in people that will.

    honestly, though, i long for a moderate third party -- or "middle" party to emerge, if only to call BOTH sides on their hypocrisies. and also to underscore just how radical and un-conservative the republican party has actually become (i think it would actually help dems define themselves again by not having to capitulate to the whims of pedestrian aristocrats like lieberman - i think too many liberals have let the wingnuts convince them that liberal really is a bad word). but the truth is that a third party not going to emerge in the next 3 months.

    so the simple reality is in the short term, REPUBLICANS NEED TO GO, and in the longer term let's hope some viable third party choices start to emerge.

     
  • At 6:45 AM, Blogger Darwin's Beagle--Two said…

    Remember it's not who votes, it's who counts the votes (or programs the counting)

     
  • At 8:16 AM, Anonymous Cathy said…

    Why am I proud to be a Democrat as someone above questioned?

    The Democratic Party stands for what I believe and the Republicans never do.

    If you need more details, let me know.

    Cathy
    A proud Democrat who will never fall for the Repub cultural issues that only divide and lead to hatred towards each other.

     
  • At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I still think that since the media covered up the voter fraud, that we can have all the polls we want, but until that issue is exposed, Rethugs will continue to steal. We will always get close, but there will always be a one party system here until America knows the truth. DIEBOLD

     
  • At 9:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Progressive Rex, it's too late. Once the Bushes got in, we will NEVER EVER EVER have fair elections again U N L E S S and U N T I L people take to the street about voter fraud, NOT bad campaigns, NOT changing our message, NOT "moving on and getting over it", or any other brainwash the Republo Corpo media wants us to believe. They know that the exit polls being opposite the machine counts in 04 was wrong. They know the voter supression in 00 was wrong. Paperless voting is here and they are just going to steal again. If you voted for Republicans in the past, it is too damn late to get your democracy back. They have taken over. We are FINISHED. I only voted for one rep in my life for a state office and that was it. You guys who have voted Rep before consistently...it is too late. Shall we move somewhere that they have democracy instead of trying to spout about it all the time?

     
  • At 9:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Anonymous above is right: I quote him for emphasis:

    "UNLESS AND UNTIL

    PEOPLE

    TAKE TO THE STREET ABOUT

    VOTER FRAUD ...

    WE WILL NEVER EVER HAVE FAIR ELECTIONS AGAIN. "

    We all know what danger our country is in; we can all write and spew about it,

    BUT WE'VE ALL GOT TO ACTIVELY MAKE SURE WE ARE HEARD.

     
  • At 10:35 AM, Anonymous Gary Minich said…

    Love the news; hate the grammar:

    "There are FEWER than 100 days ..."

     
  • At 5:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    If the Republicans are so bad about voter fraud, why are Democrats against requiring voters to show id before voting? I believe both Republicans and Democrats get a percentage of their votes via fraud. Do any liberals want to agree that both sides are guilty of fraud or are we supposed to believe that only the Republicans do it?

    The ONLY way to reform this country is to throw all Democrats and all Republicans out of office. Liberals don't care if their side cheats, because they only want the power - they don't want fair elections.

    Everyone, please do your country a favor and vote for a third party candidate - preferrably a libertarian.

    I'm sure that I'll be attacked as some dumb, redneck, neocon, or any other liberal buzz word because I don't drink the liberal koolaid, but I don't care.

    VOTE FOR THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES!!

     
  • At 7:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    5:14 Anonymous was 5:07 Anonymous when he responded to a remark made about the previous article. He's on a roll spreading his stupidity.

     
  • At 8:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Hey, is this is for real? College Republicans organizing for Lieberman http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/2/14247/70377

     
  • At 12:41 AM, Anonymous JollyRoger said…

    If the dems articulate clear positions that are appreciably different from the Gopper lies and policy failures of the last few years, I believe both Houses can be flipped. But we had all better hope that the national dems learned from 2004 that "I'm not the Chimperor" is not going to be enough to get voters off their behinds and out to the polls. They have to be given clear alternatives to support and vote for.

    I think the Iraq policy statement was an excellent start. Now let us see more of the same, for both domestic and foreign issues.

     
  • At 7:33 AM, Blogger mike davis said…

    add Jack Carter in Nevada to your list of Senate wins.

     
  • At 9:25 AM, Anonymous Larry said…

    Anonymous 7:00 pm,
    You are correct. I posted on the other article. If I'm so stupid, can you please explain the error in my belief that calling someone a "nascar redneck" is wrong?
    Also, would you take the time to attack my posts, why don't you try addressing the content of my posts? Do you disagree with my assertion that both Republicans AND Democrats engage in voter fraud? Without name calling, maybe you can enlighten me and tell me the error is my post.

    I believe voters should have to show a form of identification prior to voting. Democrats are against this. If Democrats are so honest at the voting booth, why are they against this?

     
  • At 1:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I don't want to vote any candidate supporting the war in Iraq. Is there any website with information on how the candidates stand on this issue? Thanks

     
  • At 12:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Well, don't count yer chickens before they hatch. Electronic voting machines will be used in a lot of polls. And if Ohio in 2004 ( and possibly Iowa and New Mexico) is any guide they are good for a percentage point or three. Exit polls, used in third world countries to show when cheating occurs would have overturned the Bush re-election if the standards used elsewhere had applied here. So maybe we need some UN monitors.

     
  • At 10:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Maybe we need voter identification verification. Too bad the Democrats reject the idea of verifying someone's identity prior to voting.

     
  • At 1:03 PM, Blogger Mr. Flash said…

    Don’t fall for the “Good cop, bad cop” routine. The democrats in congress for the most part voted to allow Bush to illegally invade Iraq. The democrats in congress by in large voted in favor of the Patriot (sic) Act.

    Never forget that anyone claiming to be a “proud democrat” might as well be claiming to be a “proud republican” for democrat=republican.

    Don’t be fooled by the “Good cop” telling you that if you cooperate with him that the “Bad cop” won’t be able to get you. That ploy was designed to trick people with fifth grade mentalities.

    Grow-up people, Grow-up.

     

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